Post #16239

AUD/USD Analysis: RBA Hikes Meet a Resurgent US Dollar AUD/USD is testing the 0.7200 level — a well-defined weekly resistance zone. A sustained hold above this threshold would constitute a break and retest, confirming a shift in the medium-term technical bias to the upside. The fundamental case for AUD remains intact. The RBA hiked to 4.35% with markets now pricing an 80% probability of a further increase to 4.60% by August. Wage growth, while moderating slightly on an annual basis, remains consistent with persistent labor cost pressures that underpin the inflation trajectory. The constraint on further AUD/USD upside is the US data. CPI at 3.8% yesterday and today's PPI at 1.4% MoM — the largest monthly increase since March 2022 — have materially strengthened the dollar. The Aussie's strength is more visible on the crosses. AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, and AUD/NZD are reflecting the RBA's hawkish positioning more cleanly, where dollar strength is not offsetting the rate differential. — Alan