Alpha updates. 🪓

From the U.S. dropping missiles on Iran last year to the capture of Venezuelan president, every major event under Trump happened on weekends. There is no serious trader in the financial markets who doesn’t know that a strike is coming this weekend and many opened shorts ahead of time. Today, we’re living through the strike, and crypto still hasn’t made new lows. The main reason for that is the strike being priced in ahead of time.

Crypto total market cap is $2.3T, and CZ alone has a net worth of $80B. That’s roughly 3.5% of the entire crypto industry’s net worth in the hands of one person ( thay too in crypto) Owning 3.5% of the total supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even Solana isn’t normal, that’s GOD level dominance. And here, one individual effectively owns 3.5% of the whole industry. But the story doesn’t end here. Binance is responsible for around $160B in user funds custody. Not saying this belongs to Binance itself, but indirectly and effectively, those funds are controlled by Binance. So in total, more than 10% of the entire industry’s mc is effectively under CZ’s control. That’s scary.

30 out of 30 top indicators… and not ONE has triggered. Let that sink in. Pi Cycle Top? .. Puell Multiple ..MVRV? None of it hit .. And yet $BTC is already deep underwater. So what’s the truth? Either this bull run hasn’t peaked yet and we are just living through a violent mid cycle shakeout. or all 30 indicators are completely useless and years of cycle data just stopped working overnight. Being honest...in every previous cycle top 2017, 2021 at least a few major signals were flashing red. This time? Nothing. If this is the top… it’s the weakest, most invisible top in Bitcoin history.

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is now at 25.46… The lowest level in its entire 17 year history. The previous record was 28.3 in 2022 and now we are even below that. Bitcoin has never been this oversold before. Look at the history. Every time Bitcoin has been this oversold, the next 6-12 months followed by recovery: 2022 (Luna/FTX crash) → RSI 28.3 → +85% recovery COVID Crash 2020 → RSI 26.4 → +160%+ recovery 2018 Bear Market → RSI ~28 → +108% recovery Panic doesn’t change maths

1,006,353 Bitcoin only. That’s less than 5% off all the supply remaining to be mined. Scarcity getting scarcer...

Watching Claude replacing jobs with every new announcement

Bitcoin isn’t operating on a clean 21M fixed supply anymore… and honestly all thanks to Paper Bitcoin. Yes the blockchain still has the hard cap of 21 million coins. But the market structure around Bitcoin has completely changed. Wall Street stepped in with Futures, Options, ETFs. And these instruments allow multiple players to take exposure to the same single coin at the same time. Think about it like this… One real Bitcoin is sitting in custody somewhere. But on top of that one coin, there are multiple “paper” claims. Multiple bets. Multiple positions. No new Bitcoin is being mined. But financially? It’s as if synthetic supply keeps expanding. That’s the game. Scarcity still exists on chain. But in the trading arena, that scarcity gets diluted by leverage. And in this new environment, price isn’t just moving because retail is bullish or bearish. It’s being pushed around by leverage, liquidations, open interest spikes, funding rates… basically the cost of holding those paper bets. Short term? Of course it matters. Leverage gets flushed. Open interest explodes. New bets pile in. You see long wicks on both sides. Volatility becomes the show. But for long term holders, none of this matters

Bitcoin is going through one of its worst phases in history, it has now closed five consecutive months in red, pushing market into extremely oversold territory, levels last seen during the 2018 bear market. 2026 has already made history as the first year ever where both January and February closed back to back in red. Data shows the market is at Extreme Exhaustion, five consecutive monthly closes are red, imo the probability of mean reversion rises to above 90% in technical terms.

No matter market is pumping or dumping, one thing remains constant that is Stablecoins growth. For the last 2 years, stablecoin growing at steady 50% YoY. and if this trend continues we could hit $500B by the end of 2026. But honestly here’s why I think 2026 will be even bigger than we imagine. 2025 changed everything. With the GENIUS Act and new U.S. stablecoin laws passed in July 2025, the biggest barrier regulatory fear is gone. Big banks and institutions like JPMorgan and Visa finally have the legal clarity they needed. Stablecoins are evolving from exchange collateral into global settlement rails for payments, remittances, and card network and that’s what opens the road to $2T. Standard Chartered and Citi bank predicting $2 Trillion stablecoin MC by the end of 2028. If stablecoin alone hits $2T then based on typical dominance ratio, net Crypto MC should be around $15-20T putting BTC roughly at $8-10T or near $500K at 55% dominance. Let’s just hope $ETH isn’t still trading near $3k by then... lol

https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2022978359488037184?s=52&t=MpsMbNE2PDtDtDfKUQWooA

A must read! https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2022282345798152546?s=46&t=MpsMbNE2PDtDtDfKUQWooA