Alpha updates. 🪓

https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2017344356987150807

Silver Inu

Most of the liquidity seems sitting upside. $5B in short liquidation if btc hits $90k, 900M in total liquidation if price hits $75K. That’s a major imbalance but remember, liquidation levels are fuel, not magnets. Price still needs momentum and buyers to actually reach those zones. So..what will come first?

The odds of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31 have now dropped to 51%. But it feels like nothing is bullish for our market anymore. Gold is at All Time High Silver is at All Time High Stocks are at All Time High But BTC is dumping… Things have changed after 10/10. Many big players have left the industry for good, and that’s why we’re facing a serious liquidity crisis.

Institutions Remain Optimistic on Bitcoin Coinbase conducted survey for institutional investors showed that 80% of them would hold or buy more crypto if markets dropped another 10%, indicating strong signs of long term conviction. Since Bitcoin’s last all time high in October, more than half of these investors have either maintained or increased their positions.

Something interesting is happening on Binance. For years, Binance averaged ~12,000 BTC per month in inflows. Now that number is down to ~5,800 BTC/month, nearly cut in half. We haven’t seen inflow levels this low since 2020. (And remember: Binance is roughly 4x larger today than it was back then.) That’s a big shift. And it doesn’t stop there… Since October 10, Binance has recorded roughly $63 billion in outflows. Out of that, $10 billion left in just the last 7 days alone. This isn’t retail panic. Retail sells on exchanges. This is large capital moving coins off exchanges, usually a sign of holding, not trading. At the same time, CZ posted four times this week telling people to buy and hold. Does CZ see a supply squeeze coming? Or is he trying to restore confidence and slow down the outflows from Binance? Hard to say for sure.

Everyone said gold was “safer.” This chart shows what actually happened once Bitcoin entered the picture. • Over 2 years: Bitcoin clearly outperforms • Over 4, 6, 8 years: there’s no real comparison • Over a full decade: gold and silver are flat lines at the bottom. Diversification matters. But ignoring emerging assets is the real risk.

While most chains are either dying or have already become ghost chains, activity on the $APT network has been rising consistently month after month and has now reached an all time high.

Bitcoin has never remained in a downtrend against Gold for more than 14 months. The average Bitcoin downtrend period is around 427 days, and right now we are very close to that level 👀 Last time, when Bitcoin broke out of this downtrend in December 2022, BTC went on to rally nearly 400% by March 2024. Now we’re sitting at the same type of inflection point where disbelief is high, confidence is low, and the bigger cycle hasn’t started turning yet.

The more I see gold quietly pushing higher, the more my belief in Bitcoin strengthens. Because they serve the same human fear “I don’t trust the system long term.” For decades, gold has been the traditional escape.Now Bitcoin is emerging as the digital one. Bitcoin doesn’t need to replace gold to win. It just needs a small shift in how the world stores value. Even a few percent of that capital moving over time changes everything. Even just 5% of gold’s market cap could make Bitcoin double from here. That’s why long term $1M BTC doesn’t feel like a crazy number to me anymore.

Y2K was supposed to crash the internet. Quantum is supposed to crash Bitcoin. Every generation has its “This Will End Everything” moment. History already told us how this story ends. In the late 90s, it was Y2K. The Millennium Bug was supposed to crash banks, shut down power grids, and reset the global economy to zero. Software couldn’t handle the year 2000. Experts predicted a digital apocalypse. What actually happened? Nothing disastrous. Not because the threat was fake, but because software adapts. So here is the Y2K Blueprint for Bitcoin. Today, the same doomsday language is being recycled for Quantum Computing vs Bitcoin & people are missing the exact same lesson history already taught us. The problem is just code, Y2K was a storage limitation in software. Quantum is a limitation of today’s cryptographic signatures not Bitcoin itself. Engineers spent years rewriting systems before Jan 1, 2000. Likewise, Bitcoin developers are already researching and testing Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC). Bitcoin is not hard wired, it is software, not a physical object. Just like banks, airlines, and governments upgraded their systems for Y2K, Bitcoin can upgrade its signature scheme through a routine network upgrade i.e soft fork. The Quantum “threat” isn’t a flaw in Bitcoin. It’s simply the next known technical milestone with a known technical solution. By the time quantum computers are powerful enough to matter, Bitcoin will already be running quantum resistant signatures. In 1999, they said the “code” would fail. It didn’t. In 2026, they say the “encryption” will fail. It won’t. Bitcoin will simply update and move on.

There is only about 6% of ETH supply left on exchanges. Out of this, roughly 30% is held by market makers to maintain inventory. That means only ~3-4% of ETH supply is actually liquid. Timing remains to be seen, maybe this month, next month, or next year but when the supply shock hits, the rally will be historical.