Alpha updates. 🪓

Good to see Spot buying pressure is picking up again. And to be clear this isn’t exchanges accumulating Bitcoin. These are users buying on exchanges.

Bloomberg report says the 10/10 collapse event shook confidence so badly that most investors either exited the market completely or limited themselves to just Bitcoin and Ethereum. That capital never really rotated back into alts. This explains why even after strong development and fundamentals, most altcoins are still sitting near their lows. Clearly not a tech problem, it’s a capital trust problem. Also, the altcoin rally window has shrunk to just 20 days.

BOJ interest rate to be announced on 23 January and there is 97% chance of no rate hike. Markets are already pricing in status quo. Liquidity expectations stay unchanged, yen pressure remains and risk assets won’t get a shock unless BOJ surprises with a 'Hawkish tone.'

At the current liquidation levels, longs are clearly more crowded than shorts. long liquidation heat concentrated at $85k - $89k, creating a heavy downside magnet. Funding is still positive, but the problem is there isn’t much upside liquidity left. That usually means the market looks for an easier move. If this continues, a flush to clear over exposed longs wouldn’t be surprising.

Gm Quick update on Bitcoin's move. Right now, Bitcoin isn’t moving because of strong buying or selling. Price is being pushed around mainly due to leverage liquidations. Both longs and shorts are getting wiped out. That’s why we are seeing sharp wicks up and down. Funding rates are flipping quickly between positive and negative. This shows confusion, the phase is less about trend and more about clearing leveraged positions.

CZ just posted "Super Cycle incoming." Do you trust him?

If you DCA $100 per week into Bitcoin starting now, you can stack 0.1 BTC in ~2.5 years. If you wait 2 years and then start the same DCA, it will take 5 years to reach 0.1 BTC (~2032) If you wait 5 years, the same goal will take 12 years (~2043) Same strategy, same amount. Only difference is when you start. Bitcoin is not an investment, it's a store of value. The sooner this is realized, the clearer it becomes that Bitcoin is never overvalued.

Retail is still missing Bitcoin’s 30 day retail demand is negative, meaning small investors haven’t jumped in yet. No FOMO, no crowd chasing the move. From long term perspective, this is usually the phase where whales and smart money builds position. Retail comes later, when prices already feel safe.

Markets Right Now 🌚

Just as crypto shows signs of healing. The World: 🇺🇸: U.S. may impose 500% tariffs on countries buying oil from Russia, including India, China, and Brazil 🇨🇳: CHINA ISSUES A STARK WARNING TO THE UNITED STATES “If you want war, war will come. If you seek to destroy China, you will be destroyed.” 🇷🇺: Russia has deployed a submarine and naval assets to escort the oil tanker Marinera (formerly Bella 1) across the North Atlantic 🇩🇰: Denmark warns it will defend its territory if the US targets Greenland. Tensions in the Arctic are heating up. War, trade war, oil, geo political tensions all at once.

Sharp Drop in Ethereum Validator Exit Queue 👀 For the first time since July, Ethereum’s validator exit queue has almost vanished, sitting at just 32 ETH. This means very few validators want to leave the network right now. Meanwhile staking demand is picking up. More ETH is being locked in, fewer validators are cashing out. Net result, confidence in Ethereum is improving, and long term conviction looks stronger than it has in months.