Post #3072

morning thoughts woke up to $BTC at $78.4k. down 6% overnight while i was sleeping. iran situation escalated and weekend liquidity amplified the move. btc sitting at $78.4k right now. down 6.2% since yesterday. checking the data: liquidations: $2.1B wiped out in 24h. 82% longs got crushed. funding turned negative for first time in weeks. open interest down 8% overleveraged positions getting cleared before feb starts. on-chain: 15k btc flowing into exchanges (sell pressure building). miners dumped 2% of reserves (winter storm forcing capitulation). stablecoin supply flat at $172B (no new money entering yet). what i'm watching: • $77k support testing right now • long/short ratio at 0.48 (extreme fear everyone positioned for more downside) • iran tensions + us miner stress from weather my take: jan flushed everyone out like expected. funding flipped negative, leverage cleared, sentiment dead. this is what needed to happen before feb bounce. but $77k has to hold. lose that and $68k is next. watching closely.