First Squawk

IMF: UNDER 'SEVERE SCENARIO' OF EXTENDED CONFLICT, FINANCIAL MARKET DISLOCATIONS, GROWTH FALLS TO 2.0%, A 'CLOSE CALL' FOR GLOBAL RECESSION (@FirstSquaw)

IMF: UNDER 'ADVERSE SCENARIO' OF LONGER CONFLICT AND 2026 OIL PRICE AVERAGE OF $100 PER BARREL, 2026 GLOBAL GROWTH FALLS TO 2.5% || SEVERE SCENARIO ASSUMES OIL PRICE AVERAGE OF $110 PER BARREL IN 2026, $125 IN 2027 VS $82/BARREL IN 2026 UNDER REFERENCE SCENARIO (@FirstSquaw)

IMF FORECASTS 2026 GLOBAL GDP GROWTH AT 3.1% UNDER 'REFERENCE FORECAST' ASSUMING SHORT-LIVED IRAN WAR, ENERGY PRICE DISRUPTIONS (@FirstSquaw)

IMF: REFERENCE FORECAST COMPARES WITH JANUARY 2026 GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST OF 3.3%; WOULD HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO 3.4% WITHOUT MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT (@FirstSquaw)

IMF FORECASTS 2026 EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIC GROWTH AT 3.9% VS 4.2% IN JANUARY FORECAST; SEES 2027 GROWTH AT 4.2% VS 4.1% IN JANUARY || IMF NOW FORECASTS IRAN'S GDP TO CONTRACT 6.1% IN 2026, 7.2 POINTS BELOW JANUARY VIEW; SEES 3.2% OUTPUT GROWTH IN 2027 (@FirstSquaw)

IMF SAYS MIDDLE EAST WAR HAS DARKENED EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, RISKS SKEWED TOWARD A DEEPER DOWNTURN || IMF SEES EMERGING MARKET AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES CONSUMER PRICES UP 5.5% IN 2026, 0.7 PERCENTAGE POINT ABOVE JANUARY FORECAST (@FirstSquaw)

HARVARD PROFESSOR ESTIMATES THAT A WAR WITH IRAN WILL COST TAXPAYERS MORE THAN $1 TRILLION. (@FirstSquaw)

BP’S NEW CHIEF EXECUTIVE TO OVERHAUL COMPANY INTO TWO UNITS- FT (@FirstSquaw)

WELLS FARGO EXTENDS DECLINE TO SESSION-LOW 3.1% AFTER EARNINGS (@FirstSquaw)

US CORE PPI (YOY) (MAR) ACTUAL: 3.8% VS 3.9% PREVIOUS; EST 4.2% (@FirstSquaw)

US PPI (YOY) (MAR) ACTUAL: 4.0% VS 3.4% PREVIOUS; EST 4.6% (@FirstSquaw)

US CORE PPI (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.1% VS 0.5% PREVIOUS; EST 0.4% (@FirstSquaw)