Post #11286

Arthur Hayes' New Essay – Adapt or Die Arthur Hayes has said that crypto-style perpetual futures will “kill” traditional stock exchanges, arguing that equity price discovery will move to 24/7 perp markets on crypto platforms. His forecast is coming on the back of U.S. and Asian exchanges like CBOE and SGX getting ready to roll out their own perpetual products by the end of 2025. Key Highlights: • Hayes says exchanges like CBOE and SGX must adopt perps by the end of 2025 or risk losing liquidity and relevance to faster-moving crypto and DeFi platforms; • He predicts that equity perps will be “the hottest product of 2026”, with both centralized and decentralized platforms racing to launch them; • Hayes points to a regulatory shift in the U.S. under President Trump that has opened the door to new crypto derivatives and encouraged global regulators to follow suit; • His core argument: the biggest derivatives on S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will soon be crypto-traded perps, not traditional futures on CME; • He criticizes traditional exchanges for underfunded clearinghouses, strict leverage rules, and limited trading hours that lag behind crypto’s 24/7 model; • Recently, Hayes sold large positions in ETH, UNI, AAVE, etc., despite previously saying he wouldn’t sell ETH. His notable exception is ZEC, which he praised after it outperformed with triple-digit monthly gains. 🔗cryptohayes.substack.com/p/adapt-or-die Follow us to be on top of crypto: TG | Chat | X