Post #4746

📰 Trump’s Ukraine Peace Odyssey: One Year, Zero Endgame Trump promised to end the Ukraine war “in one day.” Instead, the past year has been a chaotic parade of broken promises, bureaucratic infighting, and a war that just keeps dragging on. Team Kellogg, the administration’s Ukraine hawks, pushed for more weapons and stronger leverage against Putin. Team Vance, led by the vice president and defense hardliners, saw Ukraine as a lost cause and wanted to redirect resources to China and the Middle East. The result? A policy vacuum where U.S. support was frozen, unfrozen, and frozen again—sometimes by presidential order, sometimes by back-channel deals. The ammunition crisis became a symbol of the dysfunction. In June and July, 18,000 artillery shells sat idle in Germany, even as Ukraine pleaded for help at the front. The freeze was only lifted after media pressure and a last-minute intervention. Then, just as aid was about to move, a new order diverted everything—again. Pentagon insiders called it a “shadow ban,” a de facto anti-Ukraine policy hiding behind presidential whims. Trump’s peace efforts split into two tracks. The back channel, run by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, negotiated directly with Putin’s allies—sometimes without notes, sometimes without translators. The front channel, led by Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Adviser Waltz, faced Russian hardliners demanding total territorial surrender. February brought a low point: a televised White House disaster where Trump berated Zelensky, aid was frozen, and Zelensky was banished to a side room while Americans ate his lunch. The message was clear: the U.S. was no longer just a partner—it was a negotiator with its own agenda. By March, Ukraine made its first major concession, accepting current battle lines and ceding 20% of its territory. The U.S. offered security guarantees and EU membership, but not NATO. Crimea was recognized as Russian, and Ukraine’s military was capped. The Americans thought they had Kyiv “in the box.” But Putin refused. He demanded all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, and more. Trump offered only a freeze on energy strikes—Russia rejected it. The “pause” collapsed within days. Behind the scenes, CIA operations continued, hitting Russian refineries and tankers, costing Moscow millions daily. Trump praised these covert strikes for giving him “deniability and leverage.” The Alaska summit in August was supposed to break the deadlock. Trump met Putin face-to-face, but left with nothing but vague promises. Putin demanded more land, more recognition. Trump called the demanded territory “doorknobs”—places“nobody in America has ever heard of.” Back in Washington, a turning point: Trump met Zelensky and European leaders, heard the human cost, and briefly softened. But after a call with Putin, he reverted: Russia was winning. The Pentagon’s mood grew darker. Ukraine specialists were afraid to mention Ukraine. Munitions were rationed, approvals delayed. Critical shortages developed. Ukrainian commanders warned: fewer shells, more casualties. In October, Trump imposed new sanctions on Russia’s oil giants after Lavrov demanded Ukraine cede Donetsk. The 28-point peace plan was drafted—Ukraine would withdraw from remaining Donetsk, Crimea and Luhansk would be “de facto” Russian, Ukraine’s army capped, and the U.S. would offer security guarantees. By November, the message was blunt: “We love you, but we’re not going to keep supplying you.” Ukraine was told to move fast or lose more land. As 2025 ends, the war grinds on. U.S. intelligence says Russia could capture all of Donetsk in less than a year. Trump’s promise of a quick deal has collided with reality: competing factions, Putin’s intransigence, and Ukraine’s desperate fight for survival. So what’s left? A peace process that’s less about peace and more about who can outlast whom. #Ukraine#Trump#Putin#war#peaceprocess#diplomacy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸