Post #4854

🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣ And it is not obvious this would be effective on the ground. It would also not be difficult for the Iranian regime to try to use any US attacks as a rallying point for what is left of its support, given the long history of US meddling dating back to the 1953 CIA coup. And, however unpopular it may be with ordinary people protesting, the ruling regime does not appear to be brittle or weak, having already survived Israel’s sustained attack in June. “There is a clearly a cohesive government and military and security service in Iran,” said Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank. “The government is showing it doesn’t have any red lines: it is going to secure its borders and streets, and the extraordinary number of body bags reveals its determination to do so.” The US could consider a direct attack on Khamenei. Trying to kill the Iranian leader would be easier militarily than a Maduro-style seizure operation, which would be considerably more complex than in Venezuela because Tehran lies hundreds of miles from the country’s borders. However, killing the leader of another country would be astonishingly escalatory, raise a host of legal concerns, and invite a sustained military response. Nor would it necessarily lead to regime change. During the 12-day war, Khamenei appears to have evaded Israeli detection: the country’s defence minister, Israel Katz, defence minister said afterwards that “if he had been in our sights, we would have taken him out”. The Iranian leader had also lined up three senior clerics on a shortlist to replace him if he was killed, in an effort to secure a rapid transition. Other experts argue that the most likely outcome would be a takeover led by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. But either way, the Iranian regime remained intact after Israel killed as many as 30 military and security leaders in June. A handful of US demonstration strikes would be unlikely to change that, while US allies, Congress and Trump himself would almost certainly not want a lengthy campaign. Already, the president himself has ruled out “boots on the ground”. Against such an uncertain backdrop, it is not surprising alternatives have been canvassed. The most notable is a targeted cyber-attack, raising the question of what would be intended. After the seizure of Maduro, Trump claimed that the US had turned off the power in Caracas to help facilitate his capture, but this would only be useful in Iran in conjunction with a military operation. #trump#attacks#iran#israel#katz#military 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸