Post #5069

Why Russia survived — and may thrive — after Syria regime change 🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣ Personal ties and hidden networks The relationship is not only about weapons and UN‑Security‑Council veto power. It runs through years‑long personal and ethnic networks. The Syrian president’s older brother, Maher al‑Sharaa, is the most trusted figure in the new regime’s inner circle. He worked as a doctor in Voronezh and is now in charge of relations with Moscow. At least 35,000 Syrians trained in Soviet and Russian universities before the war; Russia has now restarted scholarships for Syrian students. The reopening of the Damascus Opera House in January 2025, with a concert of Tchaikovsky performed by Russian‑trained musicians, was a cultural signal that Russian influence has not disappeared — it has simply changed its form. The security tangle The two sides also share a deep security dilemma. Russia fears that thousands of Russian‑origin jihadists currently embedded in Syria — including fighters from North Caucasian battalions — might return home, join IS, or head to Ukraine, where Chechen veterans have already been active in Bakhmut and Kursk. For al‑Sharaa, the North Caucasians who helped him win the war are a precious asset but also a ticking bomb. He cannot afford to turn them against himself, yet he relies on Moscow’s help to keep the balance. The big picture Damascus still needs Moscow to help secure its southern border, stabilize its military, and unlock international recognition and reconstruction funds. Moscow still needs Syria to keep a foothold in the Middle East, project power through a UN‑Security‑Council‑backed partner, and manage the security risks posed by ex‑jihadists and rival powers. So the old formula stands, but inverted: Damascus needs Moscow just as much as Moscow needs Damascus. #Russia#Syria#Assad#Sharaa#Moscow#Damascus#MiddleEast#Geopolitics#Ukraine#War#Diplomacy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸