Post #5657

🔤🔤🔤🔤➖ Once again, Washington and Tehran are at the negotiating table over the latter’s nuclear pursuits, just as they were under Presidents George Bush, Obama, and Biden. That could bolster Iranian hopes that, once again, they will be able to drag out talks, outsmart US negotiators, and cut a deal that keeps their nuclear infrastructure in place—especially with Trump facing all the domestic and international pressures mentioned above. While Iranian intransigence at the recent talks in Islamabad convinced Washington to impose the blockade, Trump said talks will likely resume in the coming days, and both sides are preparing for a second round. Tehran clearly knows what it wants—to maintain its nuclear program one way or the other—but the same may not be true about Washington. The president previously demanded that Iran scrap its nuclear program altogether and “commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.” But, in Islamabad, the two sides were haggling over the length of a time-limited “suspension” of nuclear activity. Now, the president has disavowed the US offer and reiterated his maximalist demand. This sort of fluctuation could further buoy Iranian confidence. As for the blockade, Tehran may have reason to wonder about America’s staying power and the practical difficulties of patrolling the seas. US Naval forces are reportedly enforcing the blockade not in the Strait but in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, which “reduces the risk of Iranian attacks against the US Navy” but leaves “all the energy infrastructure in the Gulf…vulnerable.” US military officials say no ships from Iranian ports moved through the blockade in the first 24 hours, but reports suggest that some Iran-linked ships, including a US-sanctioned Chinese tanker, passed through the Strait despite the blockade. Whether Washington will risk a military confrontation with Beijing, especially as Trump prepares to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month, is an open question. Moreover, maintaining the blockade may prove challenging even without the risk of such a confrontation. To avoid detection, ships are starting to go dark or falsify their origin or destination—as Russia has done to great effect with its “shadow fleet” following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions. To be clear, an effective US blockade over time would severely cripple, if not destroy, Iran’s increasingly troubled economy. But the blockade will impose some costs on the United States as well. So, who will hang tough, Washington or Tehran? #washington#tehran#war#iran#trump 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸