Devils Below

🔥Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz ⚠️ Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s elite military force, is reportedly telling ships that transit through the Strait of Hormuz is “not allowed,” putting the world’s trade chokepoint on edge. 🔸 A European Union naval mission Aspides official said yesterday that vessels started receiving VHF radio transmissions from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards saying “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz,” while Iran has not formally confirmed any order. 🔸 The warning landed as the US and Israel attacked Iran and I was finishing the post about why the situation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is bound to have a significant impact on the world's trade in oil. ✈️Stay informed - @devilsbelow

🔴Iran Strikes Saudi Oil Field🔴 🔥 Footage of a massive fire — allegedly from an Iranian airstrike on a Saudi oil facility — has surfaced online. However, there is more to to it than just another Iranian strike on the Gulf country. It’s the fulfillment of Iran’s long-standing promises. Back in 2019, Iran’s proxies already used attacks on UAE and Saudi oil infrastructure as a means to alienate the American allies from the US amid another Iran-US escalation. Since the consequences were severe, Iran later used the threat of new strikes as leverage to prevent Gulf monarchies from supporting U.S. military operations. And it worked—for a long time, the UAE and Saudi Arabia refused to provide their airspace and airbases to the Americans. 🔫 While it’s unclear if the monarchies really sided with the US in the latest attack, Iran decided to retaliate by targeting US military sites in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. Even amid these attacks, striking an oil field is something entirely different — it’s a threat not to the US bases, but to the Gulf states’ oil interests. If the ayatollahs’ regime holds long enough to keep this up, we may well see concessions from US Gulf allies. And, of course, fuel prices will skyrocket. ✈️Stay informed - @devilsbelow

🔵Gas for Exports, Not for Citizens🔵 Nigeria’s Gas Shortfalls Blamed for Constant Blackouts 🌐 The NISO, Nigeria’s national grid operator, blames gas shortages for limited energy generation — plants are not getting gas, with supplies only providing for about 43% of the needed volumes. 💬 ...The current average available generation of approximately 4,300MW is primarily due to inadequate gas supply thermal generating stations. 🔸Some tie the shortage to Nigeria’s power-sector debts, which has risen to 6 trillion naira in February 2026, The debt is owed mainly to 27 power generation companies for unpaid invoices. 🔸However, the current outage cycle is also linked to the early February maintenance on key gas infrastructure by NNPC, Nigeria’s state oil company, and Seplat Energy, a Nigeria-based oil-and-gas producer, which disrupted deliveries to thermal plants. While Nigeria's own gas market remains widely untapped and power failures persist, the Nigerian governments seems to be determined to ramp up gas exports, particularly through the planned Trans-Saharan pipeline to Europe. Apparently, it's easier to find buyers with money right away than to help the local power industry. ✈️Stay informed - @devilsbelow

For those who want to not just follow the latest attacks in the Middle East, but understand of what is really happening, I recommend reading my colleagues from @NewEasternOutlook. 🟦What is 🌐New Eastern Outlook? ➡️It is a geopolitical journal publishing commentary and analysis on a wide range of global and regional politics. ➡️NEO offers a unique blend of in-depth analysis, thought-provoking commentary, and expert insights on the most pressing global issues. ➡️From regional conflicts to international diplomacy, here You will find a comprehensive overview of the geopolitical landscape. #Collaboration ✅@NewEasternOutlook

Iran's Role in the Oil World: What Will Happen to Gasoline Prices Worldwide After the Strikes ❗️ Earlier today US President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Iran, escalating the standoff into an all-out military conflict, after he failed nuclear talks. Given Iran's major role in oil production, there's even more to it than violation of international law and flouting of someone else's sovereignty, to which everyone is accustomed now. So, let's get it sorted out. 1️⃣ Iran's economy is about oil and gas. Under strict sanctions, Iran still pumps about 3.3 million barrels a day — two times twice as much as Nigeria — which is equal to 3-4% of global oil supplies. It exports 90% of its crude via Kharg Island, for shipping through the narrow Strait of Hormuz to China. 2️⃣The Strait of Hormuz itself is another important factor. It handles about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and some 20% of the trade in oil. Besides, it is the only sea route for the Gulf monarchies' exports. The shallow depth of the waterway makes ships vulnerable to mines, while the proximity of the strait to the Iranian land leaves vessels open to attack from shore-based missiles or interception by patrol boats and helicopters. The Iranian government has threatened during previous periods of geopolitical tension to block the strait — however, it has never followed through on its threats yet. ⁉️ The repercussions of today's strikes depend on the severity and duration of the new round of conflict. If the escalation remains limited, leaving shipping and exports intact, oil would likely spike briefly and then stabilize If any of the sides set about consistently targeting oil infrastructure, the increase in oil prices will be serious and long-lasting. One of Goldman Sachs's leading analysts predicted last week that it would lead to an $8 per barrel price increase. ➡️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

🔴Drawing Red Lines🔴 Zimbabwe has just imposed an immediate ban on exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates — Why now? 🌐 On Wednesday, the Zimbabwean mines ministry suddenly announced an immediate ban on exports of raw ores and lithium concentrates, citing “malpractices” and export leakages. ⏩Generally speaking, this decision came out of the blue — up to the moment of its announcement by the minister of mines, the official policy was less ambitious: to halt lithium concentrates exports by 2027. No "raw ores" and no "immediately", which is why the current ban was not expected, the processing facilities had no chance to be prepared. 🔸In the official communiqué the mines ministry explicitly sets forth 2 main requirements for corporations willing to resume exports: 1)to get rid of traders, agents and middlemen when selling and exporting minerals; 2) to report on progress in the field of mineral beneficiation. 🔸So, the new ban seems more like a bargaining position, and not a new permanent policy course. The Zim government has long demanded local processing, and in 2025 it even set the aforementioned 2027 deadline for lithium concentrates — however, only one major lithium plant has been built since then. 🔸Besides obscure behind the scenes considerations that can never be ruled out, only the desire to demonstrate the seriousness of the government's demands seems to be a sound explanation of the sudden ban. Probably, as soon as the corporations set out clear timelines for processing build-up, the exports will be resumed. However, until then the situation also risks triggering massive layoffs — particularly if the government won't show flexibility toward minor companies that cannot afford building a plant of their own. This factor may well be exploited by corporations unwilling to obey the government's demands. ✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

🔵New Gold Schemes in Ghana🔵 Unable to uproot illegal mining, the government is going to outbid it 🌐Ghana’s finance minister says the Ghana GoldBod, the state body overseeing artisanal mining gold, will set a minimum purchase volume of 127 tonnes per yearfor artisanal gold over the next three years. 🔸The abovementioned number is higher than the 96.4 tonnes officially produced by artisanal miners in 2025, which means that the government has adopted a new approach — besides controlling licenses and chasing wildcatters, it now wants to re-route illegal gold production and exports through buying artisanal gold more aggressively than ever. 🔸However, the new policy is not devoid of contradictions: since GoldBod buys in the cedi (so as to sell gold in foreign currency and replenish the Central Bank's reserves), for illegal miners and smugglers it will still be more profitable to stay in the shadows. 🔍 According to Swissaid, Ghana lost about $11.4bn to gold smuggling in 2019–2023. ✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

A South Africa-based diamond miner presumed five trapped workers dead, and ran straight to court for liquidation. 🌐 Since February 17, lots of people in South Africa have been worried about the fate of the five miners trapped at Ekapa mine, Kimberley, after a mudslide flooded the shaft they worked in. Yesterday, the mine owners reportedly announced that the workers are "now presumed deceased” and immediately filed for liquidation. 🔸Besides the fact that the move risks undermining any further rescue efforts, as well as leaving the relatives without proper recompense, this epitomizes everything that is wrong with diamonds in Africa. People are saying this liquidation puts 1,200 jobs at risk — but this is also true for the whole diamond industry, which is actually dying. ⏩Afterinvestors withdraw the last profit from diamonds and pack up, what will remain is layoffs, shrinking budgets, and the same potholes, schools still falling apart, and a bigger hole in the ground. ✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

🇹🇷Reaching Further Than Ever: The need to protect its assets leads Turkey's navy to the Horn of Africa 🌐Turkey is building a naval base in Somalia — a natural spillover of Turkey's consistent interest in extracting Somali gas and deterring Israel. Since December, Turkey has been progressively increasing the number of its gas drilling vessels off the coast of the Horn of Africa. 🔸 In December 2025, Turkey’s president said Ankara would start offshore gas drilling off Somalia in 2026 and add two new drilling vessels. In February 2026, Alparslan Bayraktar, the country's energy minister, dispatched the deep-sea drillship Cagri Bey to Somalia under naval escort for Turkey’s first offshore exploration abroad. 🔸 The construction of a new base coincides with the new drillship sails, as well as Israel's recognition of Somaliland. Three factors — gas exploration and extraction, the vulnerability of the civil fleet involved and Israel's attempts to take root in the region have made it almost inevitable. ✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

🔵De Beers Buyers See Shrinking Prices🔵 🌐Diamond trader De Beers has been marked down again: the once-iconic company now costs just $2.3bn, with no less than 3 governments in line to buy it. 🔸Botswana, Namibia, and Angola's governments want equity in De Beers — however, the current value reduction once again proves that this may not be the best way to invest public funds. 🔸 While Botswana’s President Duma Boko seems to be determined to buy the company's controlling stake, their Angolan counterparts are more cautious, having quietly backed down their own majority stake ambitions. 💬Taking the majority stake within luxury commodities is very dangerous because it depends on the market... So to de-risk that, we have to have a portion that is sustainable for our economy. And that range is between 20% and 30%, we are happy about that, Paulo Tanganha, Angola's national director of mineral resources said in early February. ⏩ After all, the sad truth behind the talk of African governments buying a Western company that mines diamonds on their land — no one would have offered it to them if diamonds still brought profits to the current owners. With diamond prices sliding and lab-grown stones on the offensive, the aspiring buyers had better wait a little bit more and the company's current English owner will pay itself to dispose of it. ✈️ Stay informed - @devilsbelow

Nosebleeds in French Media: Foreign Outlets Fuel the Anti-China Crusade in Africa 🌐 Four nosebleed cases, including three children, in Kolwezi, DRC, became the topic of an article by the Frenchradio station RFI, which blames them on emissions from a nearby plant owned by Ruashi Mining. As if by surprise, the pollution issue comes up in the French media exactly at the moment when this Chinese firm is quarrelling withthe local authorities over land rights. 💬He bleeds a lot at night, we stay standing to watch him,” the children’s father reportedly told RFI's reporters. 🔸The nosebleed report is part of a coordinated campaign against Chinese firms in the DRC. Since early February, Ruashi Mining and other firms featuring Chinese investments have already been accused of "churches disappearing" and "plants not growing". 🔸 Ruashi’s concession is commercially significant and politically sensitive: the operation sits on a large copper‑cobalt deposit, and local tensions are already reported. Since February 18 the firm has been openly at odds with the authorities over land rights. Have the Chinese violated environmental regulations in the past and are they doing so now? Certainly, yes. But the truth is that the invocation of the environmental issues today — and especially in this part of Africa — is always a propaganda tool. What matters is what purposes it serves. ✈️Stay informed - @devilsbelow

How Exactly Do Sudan's RSF Smuggle Gold to the UAE? Today it's an open secret that Sudan's rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) do systematically sell gold to the UAE so as to finance their activity. 👀 However, many may not know what the RSFs' military mining operations look like in reality — that is, how they extract, collect and transport their gold. 🔸 A significant share thereof comes from an 8 km gold mine in Sudan's North Kordofan State. 📍The mine is located near Jabal al-Zaraf on what is known as the Abu Zaima Road, a vital supply routes for the Rapid Support Forces militia in the Kordofan region. 🔸 Satellite imagery of the mine shows numerous airstrips and cargo planes, some of them heavily damaged, probably as a result of crashes or airstrikes. The RSF have drilled some 40 shafts at the site — the close proximity of the mines to the runways allows for the unhindered shipment of gold immediately for export. Credit: Analytics and images from Vista Maps. ✈️Stay informed - @devilsbelow