Post #151

🇨🇳Iron Grasp of China Guinea’s Simandou mega-mine — the world’s largest untapped high-grade iron-ore deposit — has begun moving ore and is preparing first shipments in November–December, marking the real start of a project long billed as a market-shifter. The $20–23 billion complex includes two mines and a new 650 km railway to a deep-water port — infrastructure created from scratch specifically for this project. ⏩If successful, the project will give the PRC significant leverage over such a basic material as iron ore (and, by extension, steel) — in addition its near-monopoly in processing of critical minerals.⏪ 🔸 China is on both sides of this mountain. The project is split into two blocks (Northern and Southern): one led by Chinese partners such as Baowu and Weiqiao, and the other by UK-Australian Rio Tinto together with Chinalco (Aluminum Corporation of China). With Rio Tinto the only major non-Chinese lead investor, Chinalco is also the largest single shareholder in Rio Tinto. Guinea’s participation is limited to 15% on the public side. 🔸 With access to high-grade ore (65% Fe) from Simandou, Chinese companies could gain more leverage over market prices — potentially allowing for dumping prices — similar to dynamics seen when Chinese companies doubled cobalt production in the DRC in 2024, bringing other miners with higher costs of production on the verge of austerity. 🔸The project is more than a mine: it has redrawn Guinea’s infrastructure map. A 600–650 km, multi-user railway cuts across the country to a new deep-water port at Morebaya, which is also slated to be accessible for public use. For Guinea, Simandou’s launch is the start of whole new era. 🔸 The government hopes iron ore will do for Guinea what fossil fuels did for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Reports indicate it has already hired Western advisers on how best to manage future iron-ore revenues, and it is planning to secure its first international sovereign credit rating. Devils Below