Post #58920

We will win, but God help all those who lost their homes, as both the Lebanese government and others will not be there to help. The rich Shia around the world have to take the initiative to rebuild and compensate. In a brief about the ongoing Israel war, Hezbullah's actions on 1-2 March are a great gamble. They have bet that the Israeli entanglement with Iran will inflict enough losses that they'll ensure a war with Lebanon will be fought with a distracted army, whose full resources are not directed at Beirut and the south Litani area. This is true, and Hezbullah's other rationale is that the conditions are just optimal enough because if Israel finishes with Iran with a clear win, the next target is the isolated and weak Hezbullah in Lebanon where the government just initiated a plan to disarm the north Litani area. This was a very critical crossroad. Another rationale is that starting the war will ensure that the IDF does not take Hezbullah by surprise a second time, killing the leadership and then putting Hezbullah as a whole under existential threat yet again. This was an achievement in and of itself because 3 weeks into this war, and Hezbullah, under the leadership of Sheikh Naim, was able to ensure that no leadership commander was assassinated. Hezbullah was not only able to deal strikes to Israel, but was able to achieve what it promised Nasrallah before 2023: That no day shall pass with less attacks and engagements than the day before it. I am in no position to assess if Hezbullah was able to gather the means to effectively confront Israel in the 15 months prior, but Sheikh Naim sounds confident and I trust him. We only hope those means are coupled with the necessary innovations to tip the balance in their favor. On the other hand, I would like to clarify that Hezbullah was honest in disarming south Litani area. The government's failure in stopping Israeli attacks by actually implementing the ceasefire agreement is what led Hezbullah to rebuild a force just capable enough to defend in that area, although not one on par with 2023 and before. The ceasefire agreement failed from day one, when Israel violated the only term that was stipulated with a clear timeline: A full withdrawal within 60 days. No, they took 5 bases in Lebanon, then killed 50 civilians entering their towns after those 60 days, all whilst continuing to demolish more civilian houses to ensure there are no villages left to go to, and depopulated the first line of towns. Those bases could have stayed for years and Hezbullah would not have been forced to act to rebuild had Israel not violated the other clear terms of the agreement by attacking daily south of Litani and murdering both Hezbullah members in civilian life and their families. People burned alive on daily basis on the road. Everyone lived in agony and was wondering if they will die by mistake on the road. It only got more aggravated when Israel attacked towns and then leveled several buildings in Beirut and carried out assassinations. The situation was unbearable and the both the Lebanese army and government did nothing. More than 500 Lebanese were killed, burning to death in agonizing pain. How can we forget the man from Shoaib family who was so tired running from a drone he said: "Ma3ash feyeh ya 5ayeh t3ebet"? Or the kids who saw their father drone striked just after he left their house? Well fuck you and fuck your peace if these families will suffer daily for it. This war is painful and the Israeli army will punish us using any means it has, however, it is a must because of the humiliation the Israeli army caused to the community as a whole with their failure to adhere to the ceasefire agreement. The lack of peace we've lived in for 15 months, enough to sabotage everything in life including business, was simply unbearable. We were living in hell daily, unable to breath, getting killed while both Israel and the remaining areas in Lebanon enjoyed calm.