Post #59294

From the perspective of Iran’s current leadership, the familiar cycle of escalation–ceasefire–renewed escalation is unlikely to repeat itself in this round of conflict. Tehran appears to assess that this campaign will conclude the broader confrontation, not merely pause it. Accordingly, Iranian decision-makers are likely to prefer continued fighting over a ceasefire that would only serve as a prelude to a future round of hostilities. Absent guarantees that address their core strategic conditions, Iran has little incentive to bring the current campaign to an end. While Iran may not have determined the timing of the conflict’s onset, it is intent on shaping the conditions under which it ends. Until those conditions are met, Tehran is prepared to sustain the confrontation and absorb costs, operating under the assumption that a war of attrition works to its advantage, particularly given the significant economic and systemic pressures imposed on the region and the global system,