Post #12084

🇾🇪❓The most important variables affecting the disintegration or unification of Yemen Yemen’s future will not be decided by a single battlefield victory, but by whether rival power centers can turn fragile coexistence into a workable political formula before fragmentation becomes irreversible ✍️Samyar Rostami Political observer and senior researcher in international relations ➡️Yemen holds strategic importance in the southwest of Asia and the southern Arabian Peninsula, overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and vital maritime routes. Yet this geopolitical weight contrasts with deep internal fragmentation. The conflict has generated multiple centers of authority: the Houthi (Ansarullah) administration in the north, the internationally recognized government operating through the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), and southern actors led by the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Each side maintains parallel institutions — executive bodies, security forces, and economic mechanisms — creating a de facto partition. The Houthis, rooted largely in the Zaidi community (around 40% of the population), possess organized military infrastructure and strategic leverage, making them central to any settlement. Meanwhile, the PLC remains internally divided and institutionally weak, struggling to unify armed formations or stabilize governance. Holding an inclusive conference with the participation of all currents and components of southern Yemen for “just” solutions to the southern Yemen issue can help Yemeni unity ➡️Southern Yemen is both strategic and politically fragmented. Controlling vast territory and key sea access, it has become the arena for competing visions of unity and independence. The STC openly promotes southern self-determination and has outlined transitional steps toward statehood, yet it does not represent all southern constituencies. Provinces such as Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra retain distinct identities and shifting alliances. Recent confrontations between STC forces, government-aligned units, and locally backed militias illustrate the risk of “practical separation,” where parallel administrations consolidate power without formal secession. Without an inclusive southern conference addressing grievances and power-sharing, centrifugal pressures will likely intensify. 🟦Regional and international dynamics further shape Yemen’s trajectory. Saudi Arabia’s evolving engagement with Ansarullah, prisoner exchange agreements, and attempts to reduce tensions signal cautious openings. At the same time, extremist groups such as al-Qaeda* and ISIS* exploit institutional weakness, while economic fragmentation — including rival central banks, declining oil revenues, and humanitarian collapse — undermines cohesion. A federal structure accepted by major factions could ease tensions between north and south by reducing concentration of power. However, failure of ceasefire efforts and UN-led mediation risks deepening division, potentially resembling prolonged state fragmentation. Ultimately, managing north–south relations, strengthening economic coordination, and building inclusive governance remain the decisive variables for preserving Yemen’s unity. *Terrorist organizations banned in Russia #Internalpolicy#Politics#Yemen READ MORE ✅@NewEasternOutlook