Post #12624

🎙🇮🇷🔥Andrey Kortunov: "For the Conflict to End, the Sides Need to Negotiate Some Compromises" An exclusive interview with Russian political analyst Andrey Kortunov on the Middle East war reveals a sobering conclusion: escalation has limits, and only difficult compromises can end the conflict 🎤Yuliya Novitskaya is a journalist and correspondent for New Eastern Outlook ➡️According to Kortunov, the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran is developing along both vertical and horizontal lines of escalation. Tehran is expanding the geography of its response, targeting not only immediate military threats but also infrastructure and assets across the Gulf, effectively drawing regional actors into the confrontation. At the same time, Washington is attempting to broaden the coalition by encouraging European allies to assume a more active role, particularly in securing maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. However, reluctance among NATO partners to engage in offensive operations suggests that escalation, while ongoing, remains constrained by political caution and limited willingness among allies to deepen involvement. If you look at the American strategy, we see that Trump is trying to actively involve not only his regional allies in the conflict but also his partners in Europe ➡️Looking ahead, Kortunov emphasizes that the trajectory of the war may increasingly be shaped by material constraints rather than political decisions alone. Both sides face the gradual depletion of high-precision weapons, missile systems, and defensive capabilities, which could reduce the intensity of hostilities without producing a formal resolution. In this context, the conflict risks evolving into a prolonged, low-intensity confrontation marked by periodic surges and de-escalations. At the same time, Gulf states—while unlikely to abandon their security ties with Washington—are beginning to reassess the reliability of American guarantees, particularly as attacks on their territory undermine perceptions of stability and deterrence. 🟦Ultimately, Kortunov argues that a military resolution remains unrealistic, especially when considering ambitious objectives such as regime change in Iran or the seizure of its energy infrastructure. Such goals would require масштабные ground operations with uncertain outcomes and high costs. Instead, the only viable path to ending the war lies in mutual de-escalation and negotiations, which would force both sides to abandon maximalist demands. For Washington, this means stepping back from ambitions of reshaping Iran’s political system; for Tehran, it involves moderating demands related to regional withdrawal and reparations. Any future settlement, he concludes, will be complex, protracted, and politically difficult—but unavoidable. #MiddleEastconflict READ MORE ✅@NewEasternOutlook