Post #12758

🇺🇸❓🗺The Iran war and its effects on the future of US-GCC cooperation The escalation of the conflict around Iran is significantly affecting the strategic, economic, and military relations between the Gulf states and the United States. The US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, led to Iran's retaliatory attack on US military bases and assets in most GCC countries ✏️Samyar Rostami is a political observer and senior researcher in international relations ➡️According to some in the GCC, America's defense priorities have focused on supporting Israel, with less attention to Gulf security. American bases in the region have become targets of Iranian retaliation, yet GCC expectations of full support remain unmet—bases now function one-way for US and Israeli benefit. This could cause existing security alliances to collapse. Previously, in May 2025, Trump signed investment agreements worth over $2 trillion with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, covering defense, aviation, and AI. But the war's movement toward protracted conflict now erodes regional economic capacities—energy, transportation, and tourism revenues face disruption, and restrictions on using the Strait of Hormuz will affect oil, energy, and food prices across the region. The current geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf region has also made many in the GCC more flexible and cautious in their policies in dealing with big powers ➡️Despite profitable economic relations, the GCC is now hesitant to invest in the US. Incentives for the exit of $2 trillion in investments could begin diversifying away from American influence. The $142 billion US-Saudi defense partnership remains, and the US recently approved large-scale weapons sales under a "state of emergency." But concerns grow over America's policy of maintaining Israel's qualitative military edge, delaying F-35 sales to Gulf countries. A review of defense doctrine in the GCC is underway—toward self-reliance or new defense alternatives. Even if Israel emerges as a rising hegemon, Gulf states remain concerned. Most GCC countries now realize Washington's miscalculations, making revision of defense systems and regional alliances possible. 🟦Several scenarios can be foreseen. In an unlikely scenario, the alliance strengthens further—Iran brings the GCC closer to Washington, creating unprecedented opportunities for US weapons sales and long-term defense pacts. In a more likely scenario, GCC countries build a collective defense framework—a "regional NATO" with Pakistan, Russia, China, or even Iran—accelerating East-West diversification. Iran's role as a direct threat has questioned the logic of the US alliance. Trust in American security commitments will decrease, and the GCC may even limit use of its territory for anti-Iranian operations. In another unlikely scenario, GCC-US relations face widespread stagnation, with Gulf states moving toward a new regional security architecture without external dependence. #ConfrontationbetweenIranandtheU.S. #GCC#MiddleEastconflict#USA READ MORE ✅@NewEasternOutlook