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🎓 ICEUR School of Political Forecasting

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PostedFeb 2002/20/2026, 06:16 AM
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Four Years of War in Ukraine An analytical video series by ICEUR As the war in Ukraine continues, its deeper strategic roots are increasingly viewed not as a product of short-term political decisions, but as the result of long-standing geopolitical and imperial thinking. At the center of this logic lies Ukraine. The ICEUR analytical series examines the war not only through military events, but through the strategic, institutional, and historical frameworks that shaped it. As part of this series, we continue publishing selected lecture fragments on YouTube as analytical snapshots. 🎥Lecture #6. Fragment. — Robert Müller Ukraine’s Strategic Importance: Why Russia Without Ukraine Is Not an Empire This video presents a fragment of a lecture by Robert Müller, Austrian Ambassador to Ukraine, reflecting on why Ukraine occupies a central place in Russian strategic thinking. The lecture revisits one of the most frequently cited geopolitical formulations — that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire — and places it in a broader historical and institutional context. The discussion traces this logic from the Tsarist period through the Soviet Union and into post–Cold War Russia, emphasizing continuity rather than rupture. The lecture focuses on: — Ukraine’s demographic and political weight in the Soviet system — The persistence of imperial strategic logic beyond specific leaders — Why Ukraine is perceived as a structural pivot, not a peripheral issue — The significance of 2014 and the qualitative escalation in 2022 — What this reveals about Russia’s understanding of power and status This fragment invites viewers to look beyond immediate battlefield developments and consider the deeper strategic assumptions that continue to shape the war — and the European security order more broadly.