Post #161

Could the outcome of the election in Hungary have been anticipated? From intuition to probabilistic modeling with GeNIe 5.0 - If you look only at polls - no. - If you look at the system of factors - yes. Economy, candidate strength, mobilization, turnout, urban shifts - each of these signals alone explains nothing. But together, they change the probability. This is the logic of Bayes: we don’t guess outcomes - we update our estimates. At some point, “unlikely” becomes “most likely”. And that is no longer intuition — it’s a model.