Post #4496

🇺🇸🇨🇦USD/CAD — Weekly Scenario (1W) 📌 From a technical perspective, price has been trading inside a well-defined ascending channel on the weekly timeframe. The recent rejection from the upper boundary, followed by a loss of momentum and failure to hold the channel’s mid-structure, suggests a potential distribution phase rather than healthy continuation. A sustained break below current support opens the door for a mean reversion move toward the higher-timeframe demand zone below. 📰 From a fundamental standpoint, the broader macro backdrop supports downside pressure on USD/CAD. Shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, combined with sensitivity to energy markets and relative policy stability from the Bank of Canada, reduce upside conviction for USD while favoring CAD strength during risk-balanced environments. ✔️ As long as price remains below the channel resistance and key weekly structure, downside scenarios carry higher probability, with liquidity resting toward the lower weekly imbalance. 📊 Weekly Structure 📉 Distribution vs Continuation 🎯 Patience over prediction