Post #5776

Kalshi now assigns a 43% probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026, the highest level since the 2025 crisis. Goldman Sachs estimates a 40–50% risk, while JPMorgan puts the odds at 20–40% for a lapse in early 2026. Both firms say a short shutdown would have only a modest GDP impact of 0.1–0.2% per week, mostly recovered later. However, a longer standoff could be more damaging amid disputes over ACA funding and federal spending.