Post #41

🚨Democrats flipped 2022 on its head last night. The best predictor of the midterms was the special election in New York’s 19th district — and Democrat Pat Ryan won 52-48%. Dems are still widely expected to lose the House in November. But ever since the fall of Roe shook the political landscape, it’s been nothing but one sign after another that Democrats have a shot at bucking expectations come fall. That’s not to say Trump isn’t dominating the midterms. He still is, as evidenced last night in Florida, when Trump favorite Matt Gaetz beat his closest opponent by a whopping 40+ percentage points despite the FBI investigation into whether he paid to have sex with a teenager. In other big Florida news, Dems picked nice guy Charlie Crist – the former GOP governor turned independent turned Democrat – to take on Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. Turns out electability may be more important to Democrats than Roe. But we’re still rating this race “likely Republican.” We’re hosting a live conversation at noon ET if you’d like a nerdy deep dive about this week’s elections. Otherwise, we’ll be back Sept. 13 to keep you posted on the next competitive primary to watch (hi, New Hampshire Senate).