Post #3008

The FOMC minutes are dropping today at 7:00 PM UTC, and honestly, everyone is watching this one closely. We are expecting a peek into what the Fed is actually thinking regarding inflation, the job market, and all this recent economic uncertainty that’s been popping up. It’s becoming clear that there’s a real split within the Fed. They aren't all on the same page about how aggressive to get with rate cuts as we move into 2026. Looking back at 2025, they gave us three 25-bps cuts, landing the rates at 3.50%-3.75%. But even with those moves, they have stayed pretty guarded. That "wait and see" attitude has already made the market pull back its expectations for how much more easing we’ll actually get in 2026. Right now, a few officials seem to be pushing for a pause because the data is just all over the place. If these minutes lean "Hawkish," it’s basically a signal that the Fed isn't in any rush to keep cutting rates, the market sees only a 16.2% chance of another 25 bps cut at the January 27-28 meeting. With holiday thin liquidity in the market, even a small surprise in the minutes could cause outsized volatility.