Post #3095

One of the biggest macro event this month is Japan interest rate decision on March 18. Now here’s where it gets interesting. Oil prices are up 20%+ since the start of the year because war and global uncertainty are back on the table. And remember Japan is heavily oil dependent. If oil prices keep rising, inflationary pressure in Japan can increase. And if inflation starts moving higher, expectations around a rate hike will also rise. Right now, the market is pricing in only a 6% chance of a hike. But if oil keeps ripping like this, probability can shift quickly. That said, inflation in Japan is still relatively controlled. February 2026 CPI came at 1.8%, which is actually below BOJ’s 2% target. So realistically, the chances of a rate hike in March are very low unless inflation begins to surprise on the upside.