Post #9028

📉 HYPE remains under pressure Over the last 30 days, net spot selling exceeded $163M. Since the TGE anniversary on November 27, HYPE dropped from $39 to $20.4, the recent low. The reasons are straightforward. ➡️ First, there is no new season and communication from the team disappointed the market. On top of that, a meaningful part of the early unlocks was sold, which hit sentiment. ➡️ Second, the Tornado seller. This wallet accumulated HYPE around $8 to $9 and has been selling for about a month. Roughly 4.4M tokens are already sold, with 1.3M still left. The final unstake is expected on January 26. ➡️ Third, unmet expectations around Hyperliquid Strategies. The team had about $305M in cash, and holders expected aggressive market buybacks. That support never materialized. In November, this expectation was the main reason HYPE held above $40. Over the last 30 days, spot selling pressure included: ➡️ $74M from the Tornado seller ➡️ $15M from a large HYPE KOL (loracle) ➡️ $12.5M from the failed Trove ICO ➡️ $5.2M from the 20th largest airdrop recipient Against this, the Assistance fund bought back $40.3M of HYPE. What remains on the sell side: ➡️ 1.2M tokens from Continue Capital, average entry around $16 to $17 ➡️ 1.3M tokens from the Tornado seller Because of this pressure, HYPE traded below the Assistance fund’s average buy price of $23.6. At the recent low, the discount reached about 14%. At current levels, it is still around 7%. Some traders point to $17 as a possible downside, with liquidation clusters around $19. Daily demand of $1.5M to $2.5M looks solid in isolation. It stops working when single-day selling hits $43M on spot and $164M on futures. The market is in a disappointment phase, and the revenue narrative is cooling off. This phase will pass. Whether that happens after the Tornado seller finishes, or after renewed protocol buying begins, remains uncertain. ✅Subscribe to@cryp