Post #22354

JPMorgan analysts believe the war in Ukraine is entering its final phase and expect fighting to freeze by the end of Q2 2025. They see a 50% chance of a “Georgian scenario” — no foreign troops, weak support, stagnation, and Ukraine drifting into Russia’s sphere of influence. Other scenarios: • Israeli (20%) – Long-term Western military and economic aid, no foreign troops. Ukraine becomes a fortified buffer, but no peace deal. • South Korean (15%) – Ukraine keeps 80% of its territory, develops as a stable democracy with U.S. protection, but doesn’t join NATO. • Belarusian (15%) – Worst-case: U.S. pulls out, Europe falters, Ukraine capitulates and becomes a Russian vassal. Global order collapses.