🚀 Middle East Conflict Influences Commodity Price Fluctuations, Citic Securities Reports
Citic Securities has released a report indicating that since March 2026, conflicts in the Middle East have led to rotational movements in commodity prices. According to Jin10, there is a strong expectation for an increase in energy and chemical product prices, while some basic metals have experienced price adjustments due to concerns over global economic growth slowdown affecting demand.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, the duration of the Middle East conflict may become a significant factor influencing commodity price volatility. If the conflict persists, the price logic observed since March is likely to strengthen further. Conversely, if the conflict ends, demand-side factors may dominate price changes across different commodities.
Overall, Citic Securities remains optimistic about the performance of energy and chemical product prices in the second quarter. Additionally, attention is drawn to lithium carbonate and electrolytic aluminum, which are supported by supply disruptions and strong demand.
#MiddleEastConflict#CommodityPrices#EnergyPrices#ChemicalProducts#Metals#EconomicGrowth#LithiumCarbonate#ElectrolyticAluminum#PriceVolatility#CiticSecurities
🚀 PRECIOUS METALS | U.S. Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Impact Gold Prices
On April 13, Jin10 reported that a research note from CITIC Securities highlighted the significant rise in U.S. overall inflation for March, driven by soaring oil prices, while core inflation remained moderate. According to Jin10, CITIC Securities anticipates minimal risk of secondary inflation in the U.S. and suggests that April's CPI may continue to show elevated growth due to compensatory increases in rental inflation. If oil prices decline slowly, U.S. CPI could remain above 3% year-on-year for the rest of the year.
CITIC Securities also forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve within the year, which may lead to a weaker U.S. dollar in the near term. This scenario could create liquidity-driven recovery opportunities for gold prices. Additionally, U.S. equities might benefit from improved risk appetite, while U.S. Treasury yields may lack sufficient downward momentum due to economic fundamentals.
#PreciousMetals#USInflation#FedRateCut#GoldPrices#CITICSecurities#OilPrices#CoreInflation#CPI#USDollar#USEquities#USTreasuryYields
🚀 U.S. Employment Growth in March Exceeds Expectations, Citic Securities Reports
On April 10, Citic Securities highlighted that U.S. employment showed marginal improvement in March, according to non-farm payroll data. According to Jin10, the U.S. added 178,000 non-farm jobs in March, surpassing expectations, partly due to short-term disruptions being resolved. While the employment growth structure improved compared to February, many industries still experienced low growth. Citic Securities noted that if the U.S.-Iran conflict persists, it could pressure the global supply chain, potentially affecting U.S. employment in the future. However, the current inflationary pressures are limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.
#USEmployment#JobGrowth#NonFarmPayroll#CiticSecurities#EconomicReport#USJobs#Inflation#FederalReserve#GlobalSupplyChain#USIranConflict
🚀 Iran's Nuclear Concessions Could Be Key to U.S. Strategy, Citic Securities Says
Citic Securities stated on April 12 that if Iran were to abandon uranium enrichment, it would represent a significant achievement for the U.S., particularly for U.S. President Donald Trump, who could use it to appease domestic concerns. According to Jin10, the ongoing conflict has already negatively impacted the midterm elections, necessitating a swift resolution. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution, the U.S. has lost control over Iran's nuclear capabilities, a challenge that has persisted through multiple U.S. presidencies, affecting America's Middle East strategy.
The political impact of Iran's potential nuclear disarmament is seen as more significant than the indirect effects of oil prices and inflation on elections. Consequently, the Trump administration might consider compromises on issues like control over the Strait of Hormuz. From Iran's perspective, the conflict has demonstrated that blocking the strait and threatening Middle Eastern infrastructure are powerful leverage tools, potentially more impactful than nuclear threats. These actions, which can be executed with low-cost drones, pose significant risks to the U.S. and global economies, providing Iran with a strategic counterbalance.
Repeated near-escalations to large-scale infrastructure damage suggest that the likelihood of extreme war escalation is low, reducing the chances of extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation.
#Iran#NuclearConcessions#USStrategy#CiticSecurities#DonaldTrump#UraniumEnrichment#MiddleEastStrategy#IranUSRelations#StraitOfHormuz#OilPrices#Inflation#PoliticalImpact#TrumpAdministration#IranianLeverage#GlobalEconomy#InfrastructureDamage#WarEscalation#OilPrices#Stagflation
🚀 STOCKS | Citic Securities Predicts A-Share Market Recovery Amid Improved Conditions
On April 12, Jin10 reported that Citic Securities released a research note indicating a recovery trend in the A-share market this week. According to Jin10, this improvement is attributed to enhanced market risk appetite, liquidity, and fundamentals. Looking ahead, while the pace of growth may slow, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in the short term, with medium-term risks posed by sustained high oil prices. April is anticipated to see a return to fundamentals, with a focus on first-quarter reports and identifying promising industries. Industry allocation should center on sectors with high first-quarter prosperity, marginal fundamental improvements, and those benefiting from policy, low allocation levels, and seasonal demand. Key sectors to watch include resources (gold, energy metals, aluminum, minor metals), AI (optical communication, fiberglass, gas turbines), lithium batteries (battery and lithium materials), oil transportation, chemical raw materials, brokerage firms, coal, general equipment, infrastructure construction, and service consumption.
#STOCKS#Ashare#MarketRecovery#CiticSecurities#Liquidity#RiskAppetite#Fundamentals#OilPrices#IndustryAllocation#Resources#Gold#EnergyMetals#Aluminum#MinorMetals#AI#OpticalCommunication#Fiberglass#GasTurbines#LithiumBatteries#BatteryMaterials#LithiumMaterials#OilTransportation#ChemicalRawMaterials#Brokerage#Coal#GeneralEquipment#InfrastructureConstruction#ServiceConsumption