The Kobeissi Letter

BREAKING: President Trump says he is “trying to get a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon” and “it will happen tomorrow.” https://t.co/mEMhnXMwM1 (@TheKobeissiLetter)

Interest on US federal debt has never been higher: In the first 6 months of Fiscal Year 2025, interest expense jumped +7% YoY, to $623 billion, the highest for this period in history. This is even higher than during the massive pandemic response in 2021, when the budget deficit https://t.co/hc9ay4TvsG (@TheKobeissiLetter)

The "Buy Now, Pay Later" crisis: 47% of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) users were late in paying their BNPL loans over the last year. This percentage has risen +6 points from 2025 levels and +13 points over the last 2 years. High-income borrowers, young adults, men, and parents of https://t.co/zryot0CT9y (@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: The US exported over 5 million barrels of oil per day last week, a record high, amid the Iran War. In aggregate, the US exported a record 12.7 million barrels of crude oil and refined products per day last week. As the Iran War leads to one of the largest energy https://t.co/x7XyTKNLBV (@TheKobeissiLetter)

AI agents are exploding in popularity. As the AI Revolution advances, we are seeing massive growth in Agentic AI. Between 2025 and 2030, revenue in this market is set to grow at a CAGR of 43.3%, rising to ~$48.3 billion per year. As a result, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has https://t.co/8R2JGt8QmP (@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially closes above 7,000 for the first time in history, now up +11.2% from its low seen 12 trading days ago. https://t.co/HnraTiTh0n (@TheKobeissiLetter)

US home sellers are increasingly cutting prices: A record 34.2% of home sellers lowered their list price in February, the highest for any February since records began in 2012. Since 2022, the percentage of sellers cutting prices has more than tripled. Sellers who cut prices https://t.co/SepfyFIwcG (@TheKobeissiLetter)

Risk appetite among retail investors has declined: US leveraged equity ETFs have seen a record -$50 billion in outflows over the last year. This covers 2x and 3x long and short leveraged funds of single stocks and indices, including the volatility index VIX, $VIX. The decline https://t.co/3cHEH7yEoT (@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially hits a new record high, now up +11% since the March 30th low. That’s +$6 TRILLION in market cap in 12 trading days. https://t.co/Wap0V5TfbM (@TheKobeissiLetter)

You can’t make this up: Allbird stock, $BIRD, was down -99% from its record high as of yesterday as the shoe company was collapsing. Today, Allbirds stock is up as much as +875% after entirely rebranding as an AI company. This includes selling all of its brands and footwear https://t.co/rfc6VQ2xUy (@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: US call option volumes have surged to 47 million contracts per day, the 2nd-highest reading this year. Call volume has surged +75% since the beginning of the month. At the same time, put option volume has declined -15%, to 32 million contracts per day. Yesterday, https://t.co/7sttFDsepA (@TheKobeissiLetter)

BREAKING: The US announces that no vessels have made it past US forces during the first 48 hours of the "blockade" on the Strait of Hormuz. The US also says 9 vessels have complied with direction from US forces to turn around and return toward an Iranian port or coastal area. (@TheKobeissiLetter)