#Opinion: From Fragile State to Fractured Faultlines: #Somalia’s multi-front crisis
In this opinion piece, Adam Daud Ahmed argues that Somalia is nearing a structural breaking point as constitutional deadlock, insurgency, and corruption converge. He notes that “the center of gravity is shifting from a weak federal government toward multi-front dysfunction.”
Ahmed explains that the 2012 Provisional Constitution has fueled instability, with federal-regional friction and parliamentary paralysis stalling progress. Meanwhile, #Al_Shabaab exploits these governance vacuums, a threat worsened by funding gaps for the African Union’s mission.
He emphasizes that Somalia’s federal leadership faces “a decisive moment,” cautioning that without genuine compromise and inclusive governance, the state risks reaching a “point of no return.”
https://addisstandard.com/?p=55227
#Op_ed: Policing Water, Neglecting Land: Why naval power alone cannot save #Red_Sea
In this op-ed, Jafar Bedru Geletu argues the Red Sea crisis persists because Western powers misdiagnose a terrestrial threat as a "maritime domain" issue. He contends that non-state actors now "hold the global economy hostage without ever putting a navy to sea."
The current "littoral-only" doctrine is obsolete, failing to address the "terrestrialization" of warfare—specifically the #Houthi-#Al_Shabaab logistical nexus. Attempting to stop this with frigates is "akin to trying to stop a drug cartel solely by arresting street dealers."
Stability requires integrating #Ethiopia, the region's "center of gravity," into the security architecture. Ultimately, the West must “pivot from containment to integration,” recognizing that the Red Sea is no longer a moat but a bridge.
https://addisstandard.com/?p=55212
#Op_ed: Converging Geopolitics: Insurgency, recognition, expanding rivalry reshape Horn of #Africa future
The Horn of Africa faces “strategic compression,” where local insurgencies and global power rivalries converge along the Red Sea, argues Mohamud A. Ahmed. He notes that recent gains in #Jubaland, where #Somali forces disrupted #Al_Shabaab, show progress but reinforce a key reality: “Territory reclaimed is not stability secured.”
He explains that central to this volatility is #Somaliland, whose 2025 recognition by Israel has escalated a local sovereignty dispute into a geopolitical flashpoint involving #Egypt, #Turkey, and #Ethiopia.
Ahmed warns that external competition risks fueling insurgent networks and stresses that the Horn’s stability depends on whether regional powers pursue “structured coexistence” rather than unmanaged escalation.
https://addisstandard.com/?p=55935