Consumer inflation continues surge in September
U.S. consumer prices increased solidly in September and are poised to rise further in the months ahead amid a surge in the costs of energy products
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🚀 Germany's March Harmonized CPI Matches Expectations at 1.2%
Germany's harmonized consumer price index (CPI) for March recorded a monthly rate of 1.2%, aligning with both the forecast and the previous month's figure, according to Jin10. This data reflects the stability in consumer prices within the country during this period.
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🚀 Mixed Signals in CPI Basket Beyond Energy Factors
Market analyst Enda Curran has highlighted mixed signals in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket when energy factors are excluded. According to Jin10, new car prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, with new sedan prices rising by 0.3%. In contrast, prices for used cars and trucks fell by 0.4% month-on-month. Curran noted that any tariff impacts within these figures are not immediately apparent.
#CPI#Inflation#ConsumerPrices#EnergyPrices#AutomobilePrices#EconomicAnalysis
🚀 U.S. March Unadjusted Food Inflation Rate at 2.7%
The United States reported an unadjusted food inflation rate of 2.7% for March, according to Jin10. This marks a decrease from the previous rate of 3.1%. The data reflects changes in food prices over the past year, providing insights into the current economic conditions affecting consumers.
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🚀 Mexico's Inflation Accelerates in March Amid Rising Global Energy Costs
Mexico's inflation rate accelerated in March due to the impact of the Iranian conflict on global energy costs. According to Jin10, the country's statistics bureau reported that consumer prices rose by 4.59% year-on-year in March, slightly below analysts' median forecast of 4.64% but higher than February's rate of 4.02%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices and is closely monitored by the central bank, slowed to 4.45% from February's 4.50%, also below the analysts' median forecast of 4.47%. In March, the largest price increases were seen in tomatoes, airline tickets, and prices at snack bars, restaurants, tortilla shops, and taco stands, while internet phone TV packages, eggs, and pork saw the largest declines. Despite the rising price pressures, the central bank expressed concerns about economic weakness. Although the Iranian conflict has led to a surge in crude oil prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, Mexico's central bank views the conflict as posing a downside risk to the local economy.
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🚀 U.S. March Core CPI Projections Vary Among Financial Institutions
According to Jin10, various financial institutions have released their projections for the U.S. March unadjusted core Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year rate. The previous value was 2.5%, while Reuters had forecasted a 2.7% increase. Norway's DNB projects a 3.0% rise, while BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, Lloyds Bank, and ANZ Bank all forecast a 2.8% increase. Other institutions, including DekaBank, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, ING, JPMorgan, Nomura Securities, Jefferies, RBC, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, SEB, UBS, and Wells Fargo, predict a 2.7% rise. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley expect a 2.6% increase.
For the U.S. March seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, which had a previous value of 0.2% and a Reuters forecast of 0.3%, BNP Paribas, Lloyds, and Spartan Capital predict a 0.4% increase. ANZ Bank, Capital Economics, Commerzbank, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, ING, JPMorgan, Nomura Securities, Moody's Analytics, RBC, Société Générale, Jefferies, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, UBS, and Wells Fargo forecast a 0.3% rise. Citigroup, Mizuho Securities, FHN Financial, and Morgan Stanley expect a 0.2% increase.
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Goldman Sachs: Trump's tariffs are hitting American companies and consumers the most.
While the U.S. economy is coping with the effects of tariff increases imposed by the Trump administration, a new Goldman Sachs analysis paints a mixed picture of cost allocation and long-term impacts.
According to a recent report mentioned in a post on X by trade economist Scott Lincicome, the first data for the period up to June 2025 shows that foreign exporters took on only 14% of the tariff burden, while American companies incurred a whopping 64% and American consumers 22%. This breakdown highlights how tariffs designed to protect domestic industry often spread through supply chains in unexpected ways.
An analysis conducted by Goldman Sachs Research shows that "protected" American companies — those that are protected by tariffs on foreign competitors — have taken advantage of the situation by raising their prices. Such an opportunistic pricing policy increased inflationary pressures, which primarily affected consumers.
Lincicome's post notes that prices for consumers may rise by up to 70% by the fall, which will worsen the already strained situation of household budgets affected by broader economic problems.
Going deeper into the analysis, Goldman Sachs economists predict that these tariffs will not only lead to higher costs, but also disrupt corporate profits. In a Goldman Sachs article published in February 2025, analysts warned that a stronger dollar, possibly caused by tariffs, could lead to a 2% decrease in profits for S&P 500 companies for every 10% strengthening of the currency, given that 28% of revenue comes from abroad. This was confirmed by the earnings reports for the second quarter, as detailed in a Goldman Sachs analyst article dated July 2025, which showed the first profit losses, especially for multinational companies dependent on imported resources.
According to a Lincicom analysis published in April 2025 on X, American manufacturers, in particular, will face a 5-15% increase in production costs due to duties on imported materials. This decrease in competitiveness is evident in foreign markets, where American exporters are struggling with competitors who are not subject to customs duties. The Times of India newspaper reported just four days ago that similar tariff dynamics prompted Goldman Sachs to lower India's GDP forecast for 2025, highlighting the global consequences that could boomerang for American companies in the form of lower export demand.
For consumers, tariffs are far from an abstract thing. Goldman Sachs estimates that effective tariff rates could rise to 14 percentage points by the end of 2025, even with the unannounced increases, as noted in the Seeking Alpha article two weeks ago. This will lead to higher prices for everyday goods, from electronics to clothing, which will affect low-income households the most. An article in the Economic Times from last week echoed this thought, citing Fitch Ratings data, according to which US tariffs on Indian goods jumped from 2.4% a year earlier to 20.7%, which indirectly led to higher costs for American importers and, ultimately, for buyers.
In addition, the uncertainty generated by tariffs is holding back investment. In his posts on X dated May and July 2025, Lincicome refers to Goldman Sachs forecasts for a reduction in capital expenditures, which will lead to a decrease in capital and per capita consumption over time.
This long-term decline in productivity, including a shift to less efficient domestic enterprises and reduced innovation, could lead to lower U.S. GDP growth, as outlined in Goldman's April 2025 report on the risk of a tariff-induced recession.
#Trump#Tariffs#GoldmanSachs#USEconomy#TradeWar#Inflation#ConsumerPrices#USPolitics#Manufacturing#GlobalTrade#EconomicImpact
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