@rednile12 · Post #10422 · 17.12.2025, 17.16
🔺Continuation from above @rednile12 🛢️ What’s really driving prices? 🔹Oversupply dominates ▪️US output at a record ~13.8 million bpd ▪️OPEC+ (led by Russia) adding 137,000 bpd in December ▪️IEA warns of a 4+ million bpd surplus in 2026 🔹Venezuela factor is limited (for now) ▪️Venezuela exports ~800–900k bpd (mostly to China) ▪️Blockade mainly targets shadow fleet tankers ▪️Estimated 300–500k bpd at risk ▪️OPEC spare capacity can easily offset this 🔹Demand is weak ▪️Sluggish global growth ▪️China slowdown ▪️Energy transition pressures ⚠️ Strategic takeaway This isn’t about oil fundamentals—it’s about US coercive diplomacy. 🔹 Trump’s move: ▪️Injects short-term volatility ▪️Signals renewed energy weaponization ▪️Uses sanctions + naval pressure, not markets, to discipline rivals 🔹 But in an oversupplied world, geopolitics can only spike prices temporarily. 📉Bottom line: Unless the blockade expands or collides with another major disruption, oil prices remain structurally bearish, with volatility driven by headlines—not fundamentals. 🔴 Follow more insights: @rednile12 | #Red_Nile_Geopolitics #OilPolitics#TrumpDoctrine#Venezuela#EnergyWeaponization#Geopolitics#OPEC#WTI#Brent#GlobalEconomy#RedNileAnalysis