Post #5299

📰 Trump’s Casino Economy Hits the Iran Table Trump has spent his second term treating the U.S. economy like one long night at the tables — tariffs, immigration cuts, Fed‑bashing, and now a shooting war with Iran that should, in theory, blow up his favorite political barometer: cheap gas. Yet every time he shoves the stack forward, the macro dashboard mostly stays green. Growth holds up, unemployment sits around 4.3 percent, real wages rise, stocks climb, and an AI investment boom quietly turns data centers into a national life‑support system. “He’s got an unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. He’s got rising real wages. That by itself helps move consumer spending forward,” says Jared Bernstein, Biden’s former chief economist. ​ On one side of the ledger are the self‑inflicted shocks: sweeping global tariffs that push up costs, a squeeze on immigration that tightens the labor market, and a manufacturing sector that still looks weak despite all the “reshoring” rallies. Add in a rising share of household debt sliding into serious delinquency, and you get an affordability crisis that doesn’t show up in headline GDP but screams in people’s bills. On the other side are the steroids: GOP tax cuts that fatten refunds and let firms write off investments immediately, deregulation that keeps pushing stocks to fresh highs, and an AI build‑out so aggressive it papers over a lot of political risk. Even the Supreme Court is doing macro choreography — cutting back some of Trump’s own tariffs just as the Iran war nudges oil higher, one shock muting another. The message to any future president watching is simple and dangerous: you can light fires and the spreadsheet will probably eat it. The Iran gamble should have been the one that breaks the spell: a major Middle East war, oil jumping above 80 dollars a barrel with clear paths to 100 if infrastructure gets hit, and a wounded Iran with every reason to treat Gulf energy flows as a hostage. Yet for now, even bearish analysts concede the growth hit still looks modest, more like a drag than a crash. The “teflon economy” story writes itself — which is exactly why someone will try an even wilder experiment next time. Voters, however, are not teflon. Only about a third of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, and under a third like his approach to inflation, even as he declares victory on prices at every podium. If this casino run ever ends — through an AI bust, an oil spike, or a war that finally hits harder than the models expect — the bill will land on a public that never signed off on being the collateral to prove how “resilient” the system is. #trump#economy#iran#war#ai#inflation#gasPrices#tariffs#usa 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸