American Оbserver

📰 Trump’s Casino Economy Hits the Iran Table Trump has spent his second term treating the U.S. economy like one long night at the tables — tariffs, immigration cuts, Fed‑bashing, and now a shooting war with Iran that should, in theory, blow up his favorite political barometer: cheap gas. Yet every time he shoves the stack forward, the macro dashboard mostly stays green. Growth holds up, unemployment sits around 4.3 percent, real wages rise, stocks climb, and an AI investment boom quietly turns data centers into a national life‑support system. “He’s got an unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. He’s got rising real wages. That by itself helps move consumer spending forward,” says Jared Bernstein, Biden’s former chief economist. ​ On one side of the ledger are the self‑inflicted shocks: sweeping global tariffs that push up costs, a squeeze on immigration that tightens the labor market, and a manufacturing sector that still looks weak despite all the “reshoring” rallies. Add in a rising share of household debt sliding into serious delinquency, and you get an affordability crisis that doesn’t show up in headline GDP but screams in people’s bills. On the other side are the steroids: GOP tax cuts that fatten refunds and let firms write off investments immediately, deregulation that keeps pushing stocks to fresh highs, and an AI build‑out so aggressive it papers over a lot of political risk. Even the Supreme Court is doing macro choreography — cutting back some of Trump’s own tariffs just as the Iran war nudges oil higher, one shock muting another. The message to any future president watching is simple and dangerous: you can light fires and the spreadsheet will probably eat it. The Iran gamble should have been the one that breaks the spell: a major Middle East war, oil jumping above 80 dollars a barrel with clear paths to 100 if infrastructure gets hit, and a wounded Iran with every reason to treat Gulf energy flows as a hostage. Yet for now, even bearish analysts concede the growth hit still looks modest, more like a drag than a crash. The “teflon economy” story writes itself — which is exactly why someone will try an even wilder experiment next time. Voters, however, are not teflon. Only about a third of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, and under a third like his approach to inflation, even as he declares victory on prices at every podium. If this casino run ever ends — through an AI bust, an oil spike, or a war that finally hits harder than the models expect — the bill will land on a public that never signed off on being the collateral to prove how “resilient” the system is. #trump#economy#iran#war#ai#inflation#gasPrices#tariffs#usa 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰Trump’s Tariff War Meets a Cowardly Congress Speaker Mike Johnson is basically admitting Trump’s new 15% global tariffs are on political life support. He told reporters Congress is unlikely to “find consensus” on any legislation to codify the tariff agenda after the Supreme Court struck down the previous emergency levies, and he waved off the idea of jamming them into a reconciliation mega‑bill. ​ Trump’s Section 122 tariffs automatically expire after 150 days; extending them would require Congress to vote, which senior Republicans privately say they don’t have the numbers to do. Senate Democrats have already promised to block any extension, and with a 60‑vote threshold they can make sure the import tax dies on schedule. Even swing‑district Republicans like Don Bacon are breaking, calling the tariffs a “ball and chain” on the GOP ahead of the midterms and predicting the new levies will “fail in the courts” as well. Johnson is also punting on refunds for the illegal tariffs the Court just killed, saying that’s for the White House to sort out and “doesn’t really involve the House at this point.” Congress doesn’t want to own either the cost of paying companies back or the politics of defending Trump’s trade taxes. Trump can still improvise new workarounds from the Oval Office, but the branch that actually controls tariff power under the Constitution is quietly signaling it has no intention of bailing him out. #Trump#tariffs#MikeJohnson#Congress#trade#fakeDemocracy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Merz Discovers Separation of Powers, Walks Into Trump’s Tariff Circus German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is flying to Washington with what he promises will be a “very clear European position” on Trump’s new global tariffs — which is adorable, given that Trump’s trade policy changes faster than his social‑media posts. Merz told German TV that customs policy is an EU competence, so he’ll coordinate a joint line on the fresh 15% blanket tariff the White House just slapped on nearly all imports for 150 days, after the Supreme Court killed Trump’s emergency mega‑tariffs. On paper, he’s not wrong to sound upbeat. The court’s ruling is a rare institutional slapdown that limits Trump’s ability to randomly hike duties into triple digits and forces him back into narrower legal lanes. Merz even called it “reassuring,” proof that U.S. checks and balances still work. In practice, though, Berlin’s exporters are still staring at a flat 15% tax until further notice, layered on top of years of whiplash over which car part, machine tool, or chemical input is suddenly a “national security threat.” Brussels will now try to do what it always does: draft a common script, rattle the sabre about “appropriate countermeasures,” and quietly pray Trump doesn’t wake up one morning and decide BMWs are Chinese by association. Merz can arrive in Washington waving a united‑EU memo; Trump arrives with a pen that can still rewrite everyone’s cost structure overnight for five months at a time. The separation of powers may be working — it just hasn’t separated Europe from the bill. #Germany#EU#Trump#tariffs#Merz#tradeWar#fakeDemocracy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Supreme Court Disarms Trump. Xi Walks In Stronger. Xi Jinping is about to host Donald Trump in Beijing with something no Chinese leader has had in years: a U.S. president who just had his favorite weapon taken away by his own Supreme Court. The court killed Trump’s emergency mega‑tariffs, wiping out second‑term levies that hit Chinese goods as high as 145% and dropping Beijing into the same temporary 15% global rate the U.S. now slaps on allies — a fee that expires in 150 days unless Congress renews it. That ruling strips Trump of the instant “tariff hammer” he used to strong‑arm China into buying around 25 million tons of soybeans and making other one‑off concessions. As Fudan University’s Wu Xinbo puts it, the “soybean card” is now back in China’s hand: if those tariffs were illegal, Beijing can demand better terms or simply walk away from purchase pledges tied to them. Xi’s negotiators are already expected to push harder for access to advanced semiconductors, looser export controls, fewer restrictions on Chinese firms, and softer U.S. language and arms sales around Taiwan. Trump isn’t disarmed, just downgraded. He’s rushed to slap a replacement 15% global tariff using Section 122 of the Trade Act — legally capped, short‑lived, and far less targeted than his old IEEPA arsenal. He can still revive pressure through slower tools like Section 301 (where China already faces an investigation over missed “Phase One” pledges) and Section 232 national‑security tariffs, or by tightening export controls if Beijing plays games with rare earths. But none of that has the same shock‑and‑awe leverage ahead of a summit. Beijing, meanwhile, is keeping the victory low‑key. Chinese officials and state media are measured, investors are quietly optimistic, and exporters are talking about front‑loading shipments to exploit the lower, time‑limited U.S. tariff window. Trade insiders quoted in Chinese media say they’ll stay “low profile” to ensure Trump’s late‑March visit goes smoothly — celebrate in private, act calm in public, and let U.S. institutions do the work of constraining the American side. Strip away the legal charts and this is the picture: the U.S. president who built his brand on unilateral tariff power now walks into Beijing with the court, Congress and the calendar limiting his moves, while Xi arrives with time, discipline, and a clearer playbook — chips, Taiwan, tech bans, market access. Trump can still rage about “ripping off America,” but for once, the other guy at the table is the one who just got a boost from Washington’s rule of law. #Trump#Xi#China#tariffs#tradeWar#USA#fakeDemocracy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Supreme Court Says No. Trump Says 15%. The Supreme Court just tore up Trump’s emergency‑law tariffs — so he immediately slapped a brand‑new, across‑the‑board 15% tax on almost everything that crosses the U.S. border. The legal message was “you overstepped your powers”; his political answer is “I’ll do it again, just within a different clause.” He’s now using a little‑known provision that lets a president impose a global tariff for 150 days unless Congress votes to keep it. First he said 10%. Less than a day later, with no serious policy review process, he jumped straight to the legal maximum of 15%. Some of his own staff reportedly found out the way everyone else did — by reading his social‑media post. The result is chaos economics. For countries like the U.K. and Australia, 15% is worse than what they faced before. For China, India, Vietnam or Brazil, it’s lower than the illegally high rates the Court just killed — meaning the “punishment” for America’s top trade villains just softened while some allies get hit harder. This isn’t calibrated strategy, it’s a flat tax on the entire planet. Trump is selling it as “fully allowed” and “legally tested,” skipping over the fact that the Court just ruled he had broken the law on tariffs the previous day. He’s also threatening to pile on more duties later using other tools — Section 301, Section 232, whatever else he can dust off — which forces foreign leaders to decide whether to stick with deals they signed under tariff pressure or walk away and wait for the next round. On paper, tariffs are supposed to fix unfair trade. In practice, this 15% blanket rate looks like a campaign‑season lever: higher costs for U.S. consumers, more uncertainty for businesses, and one man proving he can still move global markets with a single post. Everyone else gets to pay for the performance. #Trump#tariffs#SupremeCourt#trade#economy#fakeDemocracy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰Tariff Emperor Loses His Clothes The Supreme Court just told Donald Trump he can’t run U.S. trade policy like a personal Patreon paywall. In a 6–3 ruling, Chief Justice John Roberts said Trump blew past his authority by slapping emergency‑law tariffs on almost every major trading partner, using a statute that never actually gave him the power to tax imports. More than $200 billion in tariffs are now legally radioactive, with companies already lawyering up to claw back billions in refunds. Trump’s reaction was pure brand: he reportedly called the decision a “disgrace” and immediately promised a backup plan — new tariffs under “different authorities,” maybe even an across‑the‑board fee on imports. Translation: if the court says no to emergency‑tariff cosplay, he’ll just go shopping in the rest of the legal code until something breaks. Three justices — Kavanaugh, Thomas, Alito — even wrote that presidents should be free to do exactly that in the name of foreign affairs, and warned of chaos as importers rush to demand refunds. Congress, which actually owns tariff power under the Constitution, is suddenly remembering it exists. One Republican lawmaker basically posted “the checks and balances still work” and reminded everyone tariffs are supposed to be a legislative job, not a vibe. Business groups are cheering, not because they love the rule of law, but because they smell cash coming back and hate paying a tax sold as “America First” while the bill lands on them. So what’s left? The White House says it will “move quickly” to reimpose many of these fees using other laws, financial markets now have to price in tariff whiplash, and global partners get to watch the U.S. lecture them on rules‑based trade while the president tries to brute‑force tariffs through any legal side door he can find. The Supreme Court just reminded everyone there is a line; Trump’s already testing how fast he can redraw it. #Trump#tariffs#SupremeCourt#tradewar#economy#fakeDemocracy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

Tariffs, Truth, and the Fed Hit List Kevin Hassett just turned a routine Fed research note into a loyalty test. On CNBC, Trump’s top economic adviser called a New York Fed study an “embarrassment” and said the central bank should punish its own researchers for concluding that U.S. companies and consumers ate nearly 90% of the cost of 2025 tariffs rather than China. The message wasn’t subtle: if your math makes the White House look bad, the problem isn’t the policy, it’s you. ​ The Fed paper did something boring and dangerous: it compared import prices and volumes and found that most of the tariff burden was passed through into higher U.S. prices, in line with other independent studies. Hassett’s counter‑argument was a story, not a rebuttal: tariffs “bring stuff home,” raise demand, lift wages, and leave Americans better off. No numbers, just vibes. In the same ecosystem, Trump has already demanded that Goldman Sachs dump its chief economist for saying tariffs hit Americans, fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after ugly jobs data, and is watching a criminal probe hang over Jerome Powell’s head while pushing him out in favor of a more obedient Fed chair. ​ You can see the new hierarchy: politics first, narrative second, data last. Tariffs are good by definition; if the numbers say otherwise, the numbers must be “partisan.” The target isn’t just one study, it’s the idea that independent stats offices and central bank researchers get to describe reality instead of marketing it. When the White House starts talking about “punishing” people for adding up the bill, the real policy isn’t about trade anymore. It’s about teaching everyone in the system that truth is whatever makes the president look like he’s winning. #trump#tariffs#Fed#Hassett#economy#fakePopulism 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

India to Slash Car Tariffs to 40% in Landmark EU Trade Deal India is set to slash tariffs on cars imported from the European Union to 40%, down from as high as 110%, as part of a sweeping free trade pact expected to be announced Tuesday. The deal, dubbed the “mother of all deals,” will immediately lower duties for about 200,000 combustion-engine cars priced above 15,000 euros, with rates eventually dropping to 10% over time. This agreement is seen as a strategic pivot by the EU toward the East, signaling a shift away from the Trump-era protectionism that dominated transatlantic trade. While Trump championed tariffs and isolation, the EU is betting on deeper ties with India to counterbalance U.S. unpredictability and secure new markets. The move is a major boost for European automakers like Volkswagen, Renault, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, which have struggled to gain traction in India’s fiercely protected market. Battery electric vehicles (EVs) will be excluded from tariff cuts for the first five years to shield domestic investments by companies like Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors. India’s car market is the world’s third-largest, but until now, high tariffs have kept European brands out. The new deal could see luxury and mainstream European cars flooding in, testing the appetite of Indian buyers before more local manufacturing kicks in. But the pact isn’t just about cars. It’s expected to lift Indian exports of textiles and jewellery, sectors hit hard by U.S. tariffs. With India’s car market projected to hit 6 million units by 2030, European firms are already lining up new investments. So who wins? European carmakers, Indian consumers, or the politicians cutting the deals? #trade#India#EU#cars#tariffs#Volkswagen#Renault#Mercedes#BMW#antitrump#EUpivot 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Bessent to Europe: Don't Fight Back—Just Wait The Davos Deep Breath US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has a message for Europe at Davos: chill out. Don't retaliate against Trump's Greenland tariffs. "Sit back, take a deep breath, and let things play out," he urged, dismissing market panic as "hysteria" like last April's tariff freakout. "Very Unwise" Warning Bessent waved off Europe's €93bn retaliation list as a bad idea. "The worst thing countries can do is escalate against the United States," he warned. He laughed off Deutsche Bank's threat to dump US Treasuries: "a completely false narrative. It defies any logic." Europe holds $8tn in US debt—good luck finding buyers elsewhere. "What President Trump is threatening on Greenland is very different than the other trade deals. So I would urge all countries to stick with their trade deals." Markets in Freefall Global stocks tanked—Nikkei -1.1%, FTSE 100 -1.1%, dollar -0.8%. Gold and silver hit records. Trump piled on, threatening 200% tariffs on French champagne after Macron snubbed his Gaza "peace board." LVMH shares dropped 2.4%. The Real Power Play IMF's Kristalina Georgieva begged leaders to avoid tit-for-tat wars: "It would be very good if we keep it this way." Translation: Europe's "trade bazooka" stays holstered while Trump calls the shots. Europe's choice: swallow the tariffs or watch the alliance burn. Bessent's betting on surrender. #trump#greenland#davos#tariffs#tradewar 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Europe Refuses to Be Blackmailed: Trump’s Tariff Threats Backfire European leaders are standing firm against President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight countries unless they give in to his demands for Greenland. Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson declared, “We will not let ourselves be blackmailed,” while French President Emmanuel Macron said, “No intimidation nor threat will influence us.” Unity in the Face of Pressure The eight countries—Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Britain, the Netherlands, and Finland—issued a joint statement affirming their solidarity with Denmark and Greenland. They stressed that tariff threats undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral. European officials warned that such actions could fracture NATO and embolden Moscow and Beijing. Mixed Reactions, Muted Responses While most leaders condemned Trump’s threats, Germany’s official response was more cautious, announcing only a brief statement and the withdrawal of its small troop contingent from Greenland. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the tariffs “completely wrong,” and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni described them as “an error”. Who’s Playing the Game? Europe’s refusal to be bullied may signal a new era of transatlantic tension. As Trump pushes for Greenland, Europe is rallying behind sovereignty and territorial integrity. But with NATO on the line and Russia and China watching, the question is: Who’s really winning—and who’s being played? #Europe#Trump#Greenland#Tariffs#NATO#Diplomacy#Transatlantic 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Trump Slaps Tariffs on Europe Over Greenland Standoff President Trump has escalated his campaign to seize control of Greenland, announcing a 10 percent tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, Britain, the Netherlands, and Finland—NATO allies who have backed Denmark in rejecting his demands. The tariff will rise to 25 percent on June 1 if the countries don’t agree to negotiate the sale of Greenland, according to Trump’s social media post. ​ Tariff Threats and Legal Uncertainty The move marks a sharp escalation in Trump’s pressure campaign, targeting European allies with economic measures. The Supreme Court is currently weighing whether Trump can legally use emergency powers to impose such tariffs, and if it rules against him, he may be forced to seek other legal avenues. ​ Trump’s Justification Trump claims the U.S. has long subsidized Europe and is now demanding payback. “Now, after Centuries, it is time for Denmark to give back — World Peace is at stake!” he wrote, echoing his longstanding worldview that America has been taken advantage of for decades. ​ Allies Under Fire Trump’s threats come as European countries, including France, send troops to Greenland for joint military exercises with Denmark. With tensions rising, the question is whether economic coercion will break the deadlock—or just deepen the rift between the U.S. and its closest allies. ​ #Trump#Greenland#Tariffs#Denmark#Europe#NATO#TradeWar 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸