American Оbserver

🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣ At Geneva on 26 February Iran offered to “downblend” this stockpile of highly enriched uranium – an irreversible process – from 60% to 3.67%, the maximum level set in the JCPOA. The 2015 deal contained similar provisions to both downblend, or export the excess stocks. The US in Islamabad said it wanted the entire stockpile taken out of Iran, ideally under US supervision. It is not clear why downblending inside Iran under full IAEA supervision is a substantially worse option from the US perspective than shipping the uranium out of the country. In Geneva Iran offered a new confidence-building measure, saying it would not build any stockpile of uranium, and uranium would be enriched only on the basis of need. This would be a gain that Trump could claim surpassed any Obama deal. The Trump administration faces a political constraint on sanctions relief. In 2015 figures such as Marco Rubio, then a senator, lambasted Obama, saying: “Iran will immediately use the money that it’s receiving in sanctions relief to begin to build up its conventional capabilities. It will establish the most dominant military power in the region outside the United States, and it will raise the price of us operating in the region.” Trump as a result wants some restrictions on what Iran spends the sanctions relief. Iran for its part cannot accept such restrictions and needs some guarantee that the sanctions relief is permanent, and not reversible as in the past. It is here that the trust deficit between the two sides makes a solution so difficult. Iran itself seems divided on how to handle the US blockade of its ports, including whether to say it is a breach of the ceasefire and something that must end before the Islamabad talks can reconvene. More broadly, Ali Nasri, the Iran-based international lawyer, said on Tuesday two conflicting views existed inside Iran on how to handle the strait issue. One, more confrontational, view backs exploiting the strait to generate revenue, gain compensation for war damages and to assert national pride. The other sees it as a strategic negotiating lever to gain in the short term a lasting ceasefire, sanctions relief and security guarantees. “Later as the threat environment subsides, and the Trump presidency likely ends, a carefully crafted legal system could pave the way for Iran to exert greater authority over the passageway,” he suggested. #trump#iran#peacetalks#islamabad#obama 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

“Trump Is Upbeat Before the Upcoming Tehran Talks, But He’s Prepared For the Worst” 🔤🔤🔤🔤1️⃣ If talks between Iran and the US reconvene within the next few days in Islamabad, Trump will have two major political hurdles to overcome – first showing that any deal he secures is better than the one signed by Obama in 2015 and from which he withdraw in 2018, and secondly proving the deal is more favourable than the one on offer in Geneva in February before he launched his war. Otherwise he will have inflicted massive damage on the world economy when alternatives were available that were less costly in blood and treasure. He will also have to show that Iran has made no permanent gain by taking control of shipping passing through the strait of Hormuz. These are the yardsticks, or tests, around which his negotiating team will be keeping an anxious eye. In one respect, any Islamabad deal will be better than the JCPOA since it will contain no sunset clauses, one of Trump’s major criticisms of the Obama deal. The new deal will have datelines for specific events to be triggered, but overall the deal is intended to be for ever. These are broadly four sticking points on which the Trump team will aim to claim progress over his hated Democrat predecessor. The first is Iran’s domestic enrichment of uranium. In the Geneva talks held on 26 February the two sides provisionally reached a position whereby the US team, on Trump’s instruction, demanded Iran suspend all domestic enrichment for 10 years. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, indicated he thought three years was the maximum the Iranian system would wear. The US in last week’s talks in Islamabad raised their demand to a 20-year suspension, and Trump in a New York Post interview said he “did not like the 20-year offer”, and wanted the ban on enrichment to be permanent. In practice, nobody knows how long it would take Iran, given the damage inflicted on its key enrichment facilities, to start enriching again. In the 2015 talks Obama conceded Iran could enrich for 15 years, but only at the level of purity required for a civilian nuclear programme – 3.67%. The agreement did not explicitly grant Iran a right to enrich as a point of principle. The second issue is Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The 2015 JCPOA limited Iran’s stockpile of uranium at 3.65% to 300kg. Now Iran has 440.9kg of uranium enriched to 60% uranium-235, a level that can be quickly enriched to weapons-grade – 90%. Nearly all of the 60% material is in gas form (UF6) and stored in small canisters, roughly the size of a scuba tank. Iran says that from July 2019 it built this stockpile at these higher purity levels as a bargaining chip in response to the US and Europe’s failure to lift sanctions as promised in the 2015 deal. #trump#iran#peacetalks#islamabad#obama 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰Trump’s Iran War: How to Lose Peace Twice “Trump ran for office promising to end wars, but instead he started a new one… and that will likely also undercut another of Trump’s priorities: ending the four-year war between Russia and Ukraine,” Responsible Statecraft notes. Translated from think-tank into normal language: the guy who promised to turn off the fire alarm just set another floor on fire. ​ The Iran war knocks out two diplomatic tracks at once. Any half-alive talks about Iran’s nuclear program go up in smoke, and the idea of a “grand bargain” to end the Russia–Ukraine war drowns under a new priority: managing a crisis in the Gulf. Washington is already stretched across fronts, and every new round of strikes on Tehran makes a serious Ukraine package more politically toxic and materially expensive. Moscow, meanwhile, doesn’t look like a crazed aggressor here so much as a cold accountant of war. The Kremlin repeats that it’s open to negotiations, insists continued contacts over Ukraine are “in Russia’s interests,” and calmly watches the U.S. overload its own agenda. The more wars Trump is juggling, the cheaper any future “peace” becomes for Russia — paid in Ukrainian territory, Western weapons it never gets, and sheer exhaustion in European capitals. That’s the geometry of this “president of peace”: one conflict he starts himself, another he vows to end, and the only clear winner from that combination is the man he claims he wants to “make a deal” with. #iran#ukraine#trump#russia#war#peaceTalks#diplomacy#fakeDemocracy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰“Constructive Talks” While Russia Bombs Ukraine’s Energy Grid The second day of trilateral U.S.–Russia–Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi is underway — and the room is still “constructive,” even as Ukraine’s energy grid is not. The United States continues to insist that Russia’s strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have not violated the supposed truce, despite fresh accusations from Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Russia has already betrayed its word. Diplomats from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow are negotiating in the United Arab Emirates under the watchful gaze of Emirati facilitators. The talks, held in Abu Dhabi, mark the second round of this three‑sided format, after the first session last month was described by all sides as “constructive” but ended with no real progress on the core issues: the status of Donbas, control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and the shape of Western security guarantees for Ukraine. ⚡️ Russia Strikes Energy Sites — Washington Shrugs Just days before this round, Russia launched a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Ukrainian officials say, causing serious damage and plunging parts of the country into darkness and freezing cold. This winter has seen sustained strikes on power stations, leaving millions of Ukrainians cycling through blackouts, queues for hot meals, and makeshift warming centers. Before the latest barrage, President Donald Trump announced a week‑long agreement with Vladimir Putin to halt attacks on each other’s energy targets. Russia pledged to stop striking Ukrainian energy sites; Ukraine pledged to stop attacking Russian ones. The two‑way pause, Trump said, ran from Sunday to Sunday. Moscow later clarified that the break began on Sunday, and they kept their word within that window. To Kyiv, that sounded like counting days from Sunday to Sunday while ignoring the rest. On Monday night, Russian drones and missiles hit Ukraine’s power grid. In Donetsk’s Druzhkivka, seven people were killed and 15 injured in a separate Russian strike Wednesday. Ukrainian officials reported that Russia launched 105 drones overnight, of which 88 were intercepted, while the remaining 17 hit 14 locations. Despite the damage, the U.S. still insists the energy‑target strikes are not a breach of the agreement — and that the peace process should continue. 🇺🇸 Whose Word Counts More: Blackouts or Diplomacy? Zelenskyy has made it clear that any settlement that accepts territorial losses without binding security guarantees will be painted as his failure. The longer Putin can bomb the grid in the coldest week of winter and still be called “constructive”, the more Ukraine sees Western diplomacy as a shield for Russia, not a check on it. To Kyiv, the peace talks look less like a path to ceasefire and more like a negotiating theater where the lights stay off while the script reads “peace is fragile.” #Ukraine#Russia#US#Zelensky#AbuDhabi#peaceTalks#energy#WinterWar#Trump#Putin 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Abu Dhabi’s Peace Circus: Talks Delayed, Pressure Ratcheted Up The grand stage of diplomacy in Abu Dhabi is being prepped for another act—this time, the Ukraine peace talks have been rescheduled to February 4–5, after a mysterious pause following a high-level Florida meeting between Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff. The Florida Backroom Deal Just days before the scheduled Abu Dhabi rendezvous, Dmitriev and Witkoff convened in Florida, reportedly to coordinate their next moves. Both sides described the talks as “productive and constructive,” but left the details under wraps—classic Washington theater. Sources suggest the U.S. delegation, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jared Kushner, pressed Ukraine to soften its stance, aiming to force concessions before the trilateral show resumes. Zelenskyy’s Telegram Theater Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, never one to miss a dramatic update, announced the new dates via Telegram: “The next trilateral meetings have been set: February 4 and 5 in Abu Dhabi. Ukraine is ready for substantive talks, and we are interested in the outcome bringing us closer to a real and dignified end to the war,” he declared. But behind the scenes, the message is clear—Kyiv is being nudged to make peace, whether it’s ready or not. Who’s Really in Charge? As the world watches the Abu Dhabi spectacle, the real question is: Who’s pulling the strings? The U.S. and Russia seem to be choreographing the moves, while Ukraine scrambles to keep its sovereignty on the agenda. Is this diplomacy, or just another round of geopolitical theater where the script is written by the powerful, and the actors are left to improvise? The Final Act With the curtain rising on February 4, will Abu Dhabi deliver real peace—or just another act in the endless drama of war, power, and pretense? The answer may lie not in the negotiations, but in the quiet deals struck in Florida’s backrooms. #peaceTalks#AbuDhabi#UkraineRussiaUS#diplomacy#war#oligarchy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

Ukraine War: Peace Talks Stumble, but Hopes Rise for US Security Pact Ukraine, the US, and Russia held their first trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announcing that a US security guarantee agreement is ready for signing—though no peace deal has yet been reached, and fighting rages on. The next round of negotiations is set for early February, but major disagreements remain, especially over territory. Zelenskyy insists Ukraine’s territorial integrity must be respected, while Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, calling it a “vital condition” for any deal. “These two fundamentally different positions—Ukraine’s and Russia’s. The Americans are trying to find a compromise,” Zelenskyy said, stressing that “all sides must be ready for compromise”. ​ Despite diplomatic efforts, Russia has intensified its attacks, launching thousands of drones and missiles this week alone. Zelenskyy has called for more air defense support from Western partners, warning that winter conditions have made infrastructure repairs even more difficult. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has dismissed talks with EU officials, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling the bloc “incompetent” and refusing to engage with EU leadership. “The war must end,” Trump said after meeting Zelenskyy in Davos. A preliminary agreement on US security guarantees is ready, intended to deter Russia from launching new offensives after a potential cease-fire. However, the territorial issue was not yet resolved. ​ So is peace near, or are both sides just playing for time? As missiles rain down and diplomats shuffle between capitals, the only certainty is that the endgame remains uncertain. #UkraineWar#PeaceTalks#Zelenskyy#Russia#US#AbuDhabi#securityPact 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Ukraine and Russia Resume US-Mediated Peace Talks Amid Missile Barrage Zelenskiy says the talks in Abu Dhabi are the first trilateral meeting under the U.S.-brokered peace process. On the same day, Russia launched a massive overnight airstrike on Kyiv and Kharkiv with hundreds of drones and missiles, knocking out power in the capital while Kyiv negotiators sit in the room. ​ The Usual Script The pattern is familiar: each time a serious negotiation round looms, Ukrainian and Russian forces throw heavy strikes at the other’s cities and energy grid. Before the Doha agreement, the Kursk operation flared up. Now, on the same day the U.S.-backed talks resume, Ukraine experiences another wave of Russian cruise and ballistic missiles, while Moscow prepares its list of what land must be handed over. ​ What’s on the Table Russia again insists Ukraine surrender the 20% of Donetsk Oblast it still holds (~5,000 sq km), territory that, according to the Kremlin, completes the “Donbas” demand. Zelenskiy refuses any territorial concessions Russia did not capture after four years, polls show Ukrainians are not ready to sign away Donetsk. Washington keeps pushing both sides to close the deal, but what “peace” will look like is still defined in the fog of war and shuttle diplomacy. ​ Who’s Negotiating – or Waiting? Diplomats speak of “last remaining sticking points” and “progress.” But from the ground, the situation looks like a game: every round of peace talks is matched by new missile barrages, and each side uses violence as a bargaining chip. The real question is not whether a deal will be signed, but what kind of “peace” will be sold to the public once the guns go quiet for a few days. ​ #Ukraine#Russia#Putin#Zelenskiy#PeaceTalks#AbuDhabi#USSecurity#WarInUkraine 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Ukraine, Russia Head to UAE: No Compromise in Sight on Donbas Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are meeting in Abu Dhabi to discuss the fate of Donbas—the war’s most contentious issue. But with both sides digging in, there’s little hope for a breakthrough. Ukraine refuses to surrender territory Russia has failed to conquer, while Moscow insists on controlling all of Donbas before halting its attacks. “The question of Donbas is key,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “It will be discussed how the three sides... see this in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow.” Russia demands Ukraine cede about 5,000 sq km of Donetsk—land it has not captured after four years of brutal fighting. Kremlin officials say this is “a very important condition,” while Zelenskiy calls the idea “nonsense,” insisting Ukraine will fight to use frozen Russian assets for its own reconstruction. Meanwhile, Zelenskiy says a deal on U.S. security guarantees is ready, awaiting only President Trump’s signature. Even as Russia escalates attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid and freezing temperatures cripple its cities, trust in Ukraine’s peace intentions among Western governments remains extremely low. So who’s bluffing, and who’s bleeding? As the talks drag on, one thing is clear: the war won’t end until someone’s map changes. #Ukraine#Russia#Donbas#AbuDhabi#PeaceTalks#Zelenskiy#Putin#Trump 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Trump Sends Message to Putin: 'War Has to End' After Talks With Zelenskiy U.S. President Donald Trump said his message to Russian President Vladimir Putin is that the war in Ukraine “has to end,” following what he described as “good” talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Davos. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, who is heading to Moscow for further negotiations, said the U.S. has made “a lot of progress” toward a deal. ​ Zelenskiy’s Demands, Trump’s Diplomacy Zelenskiy insisted on signing agreements with Trump on U.S. security guarantees and post-war reconstruction funding, but no breakthrough was announced after their meeting. Trump and Zelenskiy have met several times since Trump returned to office, with the U.S. now pushing diplomacy with Russia rather than military escalation. ​ Putin’s Conditions, Ukraine’s Future Russia remains skeptical of the peace push, demanding Ukraine cede parts of Donetsk. Moscow continues its attacks on Ukrainian cities, leaving thousands without power and heating. Zelenskiy’s energy crisis at home adds urgency to the talks, but there’s little sign Moscow is ready to stop fighting. ​ Who’s Really in Control? As U.S. envoys shuttle between Kyiv, Moscow, and Abu Dhabi, the question remains: Can Trump’s diplomacy deliver peace—or is he just playing the role of dealmaker while the war grinds on?. ​ #Trump#Zelenskiy#Putin#Ukraine#PeaceTalks#Russia#Diplomacy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Trump and Putin Envoys Say Davos Ukraine Talks Were 'Very Positive' Envoys for U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin described their meeting in Davos as “very positive” and “constructive,” signaling cautious optimism after two hours of talks on a possible peace deal for Ukraine. The discussions, held at the World Economic Forum, brought together Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev. ​ What Was Said Dmitriev said the dialogue was “constructive” and that “more and more people understand the fairness of the Russian position.” Witkoff echoed the sentiment, calling the meeting “very positive”. ​ Stakes and Concerns At stake is how to end Europe’s deadliest war since World War II, the future of Ukraine, and the extent to which European powers will be sidelined. Ukraine and its allies worry that a U.S.-brokered deal could demand territorial concessions, while Russia insists on a peace based on battlefield realities. ​ Who’s Really in Charge? With Trump’s influence looming over Davos, the question remains: Can a U.S.-Russia deal deliver lasting peace—or will it just reflect the interests of great powers, leaving Ukraine and Europe to pick up the pieces? ​ #Trump#Putin#Ukraine#PeaceTalks#Davos#Russia#US 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Dmitriev to Meet US Envoys in Davos Over Ukraine Peace Plan Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and a key Kremlin negotiator, is set to hold talks with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The meeting, scheduled for January 20, will focus on Washington’s latest 20-point peace framework for Ukraine, according to Axios and Reuters. ​ Russia’s Role in Ukraine Talks Dmitriev has been instrumental in Moscow’s outreach to Washington amid U.S. efforts to broker peace in Ukraine. While Kyiv says the peace plan is “90% ready,” Moscow continues to reject compromise on key issues, such as the fate of partially occupied Donetsk Oblast. Davos: A Hub for Diplomacy The World Economic Forum, running from January 19 to 23, brings together officials, experts, and business leaders from around the world. U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and over 60 other leaders are expected to attend. The forum will also host ongoing talks between Kyiv and Washington on post-war security guarantees and recovery efforts. Will Diplomacy Prevail? With the peace plan nearly ready but major sticking points remaining, the question is: Can diplomacy in Davos break the deadlock—or will the talks just highlight the deep divisions between Russia and the West? #Davos#Ukraine#Russia#PeaceTalks#Dmitriev#Trump#Zelensky#WEF 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

📰 Zelenskiy Pushes Back: Ukraine Not Obstacle to Peace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hit back at President Donald Trump’s remarks, affirming Ukraine’s commitment to peace after Trump suggested Kyiv was less ready than Russia to clinch a deal. In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy stressed, “Ukraine has never been and will never be an obstacle to peace,” referencing his recent talks with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. ​ Trump’s Provocation, Zelenskiy’s Response In an interview with Reuters, Trump claimed Ukraine was less eager than Russia to reach an agreement, singling out Zelenskiy. Zelenskiy countered by highlighting Russia’s relentless attacks on Ukrainian energy sites and infrastructure, arguing that Moscow’s actions prove Russia has no interest in reaching any agreement. “It is precisely Russian missiles, Russian ‘Shaheds’ (drones), and Russia’s attempt to destroy Ukraine that are clear evidence that Russia isn't interested in any agreement,” he said. ​ Kremlin Echoes Trump The Kremlin backed Trump’s assessment, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov stating that President Vladimir Putin and the Russian side remain open to talks, but accusing Zelenskiy of stalling negotiations. ​ Diplomacy vs. Destruction Zelenskiy pledged Ukraine would pursue diplomatic efforts more actively, but with Russia continuing its strikes, the path to peace remains fraught with obstacles. Trump’s comments and the Kremlin’s response reveal a familiar game: blame-shifting and political theater, while the war grinds on. ​ #Ukraine#Zelenskiy#Trump#PeaceTalks#Russia#Kremlin#Diplomacy 📱American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸