Devils Below

An Evening Ritual of Overthinking ⚽️Nigeria has just beaten Tanzania 2–1 at AFCON. At first glance, what do resources have to do with this? 🤔🤔 Without embarrassment, now I want to tie this article into the football championship currently taking place in Morocco. Reading endless news about mine collapses and pollution can drive anyone mad, so let’s turn to football — but how does it fit in here? ⏩ First, the somber part. This cheerful tournament quite openly serves as one of the image-building tools of TotalEnergies, the title sponsor of the event. ⏩ Second, Tanzania’s kit catches the eye. Tanzania officially brought three sets of uniforms, including a blue kit with a diamond-like pattern (though they weren’t wearing it today). But then the question arises: what does Tanzania itself have to do with diamonds? 💎 It would have seemed more logical for, say, Botswana’s players to wear something diamond-themed — diamonds there are now seen as the backbone and future of the nation. In Tanzania, by contrast, diamonds are relatively scarce and not strongly associated with the country. 🇹🇿 Although no firm confirmation could be found, it appears that the pattern on Tanzania’s shirts is not diamonds at all, but tanzanite — a unique gemstone mined only in Tanzania — albeit depicted rather unsuccessfully. ⏩ That's the way the team expresses their identity — even though it might not the most intuitive design. ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

A Soft Power Playbook 🔊 A vivid guide to manipulating public opinion: a Zimbabwean NGO Centre for Natural Resource Governance, which lives on European and American grants, has published what it claims are images of illegal lithium exports from Zimbabwe to China. 🔸 Beyond the fact that real illegal exports cannot be photographed from the middle of a loading zone, the manipulation is also evident in the scale involved. No one would ever move such large volumes illegally and so openly. 🔸 Unfortunately, such manipulations may divert people's attention away from real instances of illegal schemes in the mineral industry and compromise the whole cause. ⏩ The images are still disturbing. The only thing that slightly softens the sight of thousands of big bags of lithium concentrate flowing abroad is the fact that Zimbabwe does, at least for now, appear to be pursuing in good faith a lithium localization policy, planning to ban all exports of unprocessed lithium from the country starting in 2027. ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

🌐 Weekly News Digest on Africa’s Mineral Industries [ December 15 – December 21 ] Thatwas a week darkened by several fatal mining incidents. 💡Here are the key highlights: 🇧🇼 Botswana - Botswana intends to buy a diamond giant despite having no money and IMF alarms 🇹🇩 Chad - Chad invites Algeria to it oil sector, seeking to exit dependence on China 🇨🇩 DR Congo - Forced evictions in eastern DRC examined by the UK OECD body. 🇬🇭 Ghana - Ghana may adopt a progressive royalty scale linked to mineral prices. 🇬🇼 Guinea - Guinea wants to sell bauxite to an Emirati firm, whose mine it nationalized in July - The end of construction of a 600-km railway for the Simandou iron megamine may leave thousands unemployed 🇲🇱 Mali - Australia’s Marvel Gold sells a gold project in southern Mali to an indigenous enterprise - Gold will drive Mali's economic growth in 2026 🇲🇿 Mozambique - Australian company South32 threatens to shut down one of the largest aluminium smelters in Africa 🇳🇦 Namibia - Namibia's revenues from gold and uranium exceeded revenues from diamonds. 🇳🇪 Niger - Paris Prosecutor's Office investigates Niger's uranium affairs 🇳🇬 Nigeria - Nigeria's oil tycoon Aliko Dangote accuses the head of the Nigerian downstream regulator of corruption - Nigerian President dismisses the heads of two key oil and fuel regulators after Aliko Dangote's criticism - 12 miners killed and three others abducted by unidentified armed men on December 16 🇸🇳 Senegal - Ten people died in the collapses of two gold mines in southeastern Senegal between December 12 and 17. 🇸🇴 Somalia - Somaliland wants to start oil and mineral exploration by 2027. 🇿🇦 South Africa - SA doubles coal exports to Israel 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe - Seven people were killed and four others injured in a gold mine collapse in central Zimbabwe - Zimbabwe will not raise gold royalties to 10% for current prices, according to the approved 2026 budget plan. #NewsDigest Devils Below

How Much More 🛢 The Nigerian government is proposing to resume exploration for new oil deposits in Ogoniland, Rivers State. Exploration in this region was halted several decades ago because of environmental degradation and civil unrest. 🔴 The area in question still looks on oil spill maps like a wartime fortified zone that underwent carpet bombing — and those are only the recentspills, linked to the fact that oil pipelines still run through the area. It is hard to imagine what would happen if new extraction projects were launched there as well. 🔥 In the 1990s, Ogoniland became a site ofconfrontation between oil companies, primarily Shell, and civil activists protesting environmental pollution from oil spills. Since then, many projects were shut down, but as we have written here before, the shutdown of operations resulted in the absence of cleanup, leaving the land contaminated to this day. 📌 The government began testing the waters back in 2024, and now an entire contingent of senior officials has been deployed to the area, including several ministers and the national security adviser. ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

Cargo Cult in Gabon🇬🇦 🌐 Inspired by the examples of Ghana and Mali, Gabon announces its own audit of the mining sector. 💪 The plans are ambitious: to make public all existing mining agreements in full and to conduct a comprehensive audit of contracts signed between 2010 and 2024. 📉 But unlike Mali, which has already carried out a similar review and recovered foregone revenues from mining companies, and Ghana, which is only planning to audit its mining sector in 2026, Gabon is unlikely to gain anything substantial from these efforts. ⏩ First, the main goal is not to put the house in order or provide transparency to the citizens, but to please the IMF, with which Gabon is negotiating possible financial support. ⏩ Second, although Gabon produces large volumes of manganese, mining accounts for only about 7% of extractive-sector revenues. The state earns most from oil, yet for some reason the government is in no hurry to make all oil agreements public. ⏩ In the end, this looks less like an audit and more like a fiction: examining a tiny sector, and not even for the sake of fairness, but to win the IMF’s favor. It is clear that the usefulness of such an exercise will be about the same as that of a makeshift wooden cargo plane. ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

The Glass Is Half Full🥛 Nigeria recovers a share of its oil 🌐 An association of Nigerian oil producers claims that more than half of Nigeria’s crude oil is now produced by indigenous companies. ⏩ Although no specific sources are provided for the estimates, the transfer of part of the oil sector into the hands of local producers is a well-known recent trend in the country. 🔸 In general, major foreign firms began selling their Nigerian assets around 2010, but in 2024–2025 the process intensified. The main pretext was oil theft and pipeline vandalism. Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies all said farewell to some of their assets. 🔸 There was, however, a more important factor behind their exodus: as if by surprise, many of the departing companies had with unpaid, multimillion-dollar obligations to local communities for endless oil spills and environmental damage, which even attracted the attention of the UN. ⏩ So alongside the positive trend, there is another side: the assets are extremely old, requiring modernization, while new owners just cannot afford to clean up the environmental damage left behind by the majors. ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

Just Like Adults 🚩 Guinea is planning to hold its first mining conference. The decision was prompted by the launch of the large Simandou iron project in the southeast of the country. 🛒 Unlike many conferences, whose organizers overtly seek to sale their countries’ resources, the event in Guinea will be more about showmanship and Guinea’s new status as an iron exporter. Even the name of the upcoming gathering — the Simandou Mining Summit — speaks for itself. 🇿🇦The main conference of this kind — Mining Indaba — is held annually in South Africa, but many countries enjoy organizing their own small mineral asset sales and not only countries — even Somaliland has its own mining conference. ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe: Marange Blood Diamonds [Cost of Greed] 🌟 In June 2006, one of the most significant diamond discoveries of recent times was made in the rural Marange area of eastern Zimbabwe, offering its economy a unique development chance. 🌟 By 2012, Zimbabwe had become the world’s 4th-largest diamond producer, while Marange had become synonymous with blood diamonds and human rights abuses, drawing international attention, leading to sanctions against Zimbabwe and involvement of the global diamond watchdog. 🌟 At the heart of the tragedy was the government’s 2008 decision to expel individual miners from the deposit, even though in a burst of populism after the discovery it had initially declared the fieldopen to everyone. ✈️ Once the government itself wanted to capture diamond profits, the military was sent to the site. In helicopters. With machine guns. To drive out artisanal miners. 🔥 Unsurprisingly, this decision was a straight route to tragedy. During the three-week Operation "No Return," from October 27 to November 16, at least 200 people were killed, while the military established near-direct control over the deposit. 💵 The troops deployed to Marange set up labor camps at the site. Their control lasted until November 2009, when the government began issuing mining licenses. Of the 6 main companies that received them, only one was not directly owned by the government itself. 🌟 The massacre and forced labor drew the attention of the international community. In 2008-2011, the United States and the European Union imposed sanctions on companies operating there, including the state-run Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation. In 2009, members of the Kimberley Process banned the sale of diamonds from Marange. 🌟 Although human rights abuses continued after 2011, international concern soon faded, and over time both the sanctions and the ban on diamond sales were lifted. 🔽 This allowed the state-owned companies to extract diamond profits and use them for off-budget financing of the army and secret services — but that is a topic for a separate post. #CostOfGreed ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

ℹ️Troubles with the Lawℹ️ A year of persuading everyone that the law must be obeyed ✔️ Côte d’Ivoire has finally dealt with all gold producers who had refused to pay the increased 8% gold mining royalty. 📅 The law raising the levy from 6% to 8% was adopted back in January, but many producers refused to comply, citing the terms of their contracts allegedly not allowing for an increase in royalties. ⏩ Once again, it turned out that when the state and private companies lock horns, the former always has more patience and resources than the latter — and "investors" do not run away anywhere. ❓ A fine example, isn’t it, Zimbabwe? ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

Old Story in the New Year Mali’s economy will grow faster, but on obsolete “fuel” 📈 The IMF has published its forecast for Mali’s GDP growth in 2026: 5.5%, up from 4.1% in 2025. ⚙️ The main drivers of future growth are higher gold production combined with an improvement in security. 🥇 It is unclear how the IMF knows that the security situation will improve, but when it comes to higher gold output, the Fund is clearly referring to the resumption of operations at the country’s largest gold mine, Loulo-Gounkoto. 🔽 While 5.5% is a very strong figure, roughly twice the global average, relying on gold as the main source of this growth is a problem. As long as it is not replaced by industry, knowledge, and services, the country’s development remains dependent on gold prices, the size of remaining deposits, and the whims of gold producers. ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

Pocket Money for Australians🇦🇺 🦘 Australia’s Marvel Gold is getting rid of the Yanfolila gold project in southern Mali, selling it to a local company Askiya Mineral Resources for $1.94 million. Despite its favorable location — close to major routes leading into Guinea — the asset is effectively being sold for next to nothing. ⏩ The reasons are stricter regulations and the country’s ongoing instability. Although Yanfolila lies almost 100 kilometers from the main areas of activity of JNIM, the Australians have probably overestimated the risks, especially given the rather lackluster pace of production. ⏩ Against the backdrop of such news, one may think that Mali is seeing some kind of domestic industry emergence and departure of foreign investors — however, past experience clearly shows that the main players have been, and remain, foreign companies. ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow

South Africa Is a Unique Country [ Policy Review ] 🇿🇦What sets South Africa apart from the rest of Africa? 🚩 South Africa is unique not only because there is only one South Africa in the world. There is a second factor as well. Like many African countries, South Africa today mainly exports raw minerals abroad — but for SA this was not always the case. ⚙️ Until the 2010s, South Africa had its own strong mineral processing industry, especially in metals. With large metal deposits, the country built its own plants and exported not raw materials but refined metal products. 📉 However, from the 2010s onward, South Africa has ironically begun to slide back toward the all-African norm, as deindustrialization set in. The chart shows how, starting in 2009, exports of metal ores steadily caught up with exports of refined metals, and from 2017 onward, raw material exports permanently exceeded exports of processed products. This situation resulted from several factors. ⏩ First, there was rapid expansion of processing capacity in China and other Asian countries with cheaper labor than in South Africa. South Africa found itself in the so-called “middle-income trap,” where further investment is constrained by relatively high wage levels. ⏩ Second, currency. In the 2010s, the rand depreciated several times, making exports more profitable than domestic processing. Exports made more rand per tonne of ore, while wages and local expenses remained the same. ⏩ Finally, electricity issues. Electricity is a key input for metallurgy. In the 2010s, the state-owned utility Eskom repeatedlyraised tariffs at double-digit rates following years of lack of investment in new generation capacity in the 2000s. 🔽 As a result, SA now finds itself in a paradoxical situation. A country that 20 years ago would not lament exploitation and resource extraction is now turning into a kind of raw material appendage for China’s processing industry. #PolicyReview ➡️ Follow to stay informed - @devilsbelow