Devils Below

🇳🇬 Nigeria to OPEC: Raise Our Cap 🌍 At the next OPEC annual meeting, Abujaplans to askfor a 30% increase to its current 1.50M barrels/day quota. 🔸 For a long time, OPEC, on the contrary, has been discussing lowering limits for Nigeria due to problems with oil production and theft. Despite great success in import substitution and the development of domestic refining, the main problem of oil in Nigeria is not the low OPEC quotas, but the country's TOTAL dependence on exports of petroleum products (about 90% of Nigeria's total exports). Devils Below

🇳🇬 Nigeria Сlones Oil Refinery 🌍 Less than two years after the opening of Africa's largest refinery owned by Nigerian mogul Aliko Dangote, Nigeriais planning to double its size. The refinery will thus become the largest in the world. 📈 In a recent interview, the refinery's owner, Aliko Dangote, announced plans to achieve output of 1.4 million barrels per day, or twice the current volume of 650,000 barrels per day. If the project is implemented, the refinery will not only be able to fully meet the needs of Nigeria's growing economy (now its output in theory reaches 80% of the country's fuel demand), but also help other countries overcome dependence on oil spoilage from China and India. Devils Below

💡Resource Nationalism Index [ MALI ] The first country in this series is Mali - a Sahel state that, after the 2021 change of power, many in the West started labeling “resource nationalist” and “pro-Russian” (even though not a single Russian company operates in Mali, while plenty of European and American firms do). With the 2023 Mining Code, Bamako has clearly hardened its stance toward miners - though very much in line with a broader global trend to capture more value at home. So how strong is “resource nationalism” in Mali? 🔸 "Process It First" – 7/10 – Local processing is mandatory, prioritizing state-owned plants, however, necessary facilities don’t always exist. 🔸 "Share With the State” – 0/10 – No requirements to transfer or sell a portion of output to the state on a priority basis. 🔸 “We’re in Too!” – 9/10 – The state gets a mandatory 10% free carry in new projects, with the option to lift its stake by another 20% + 5% are reserved for local investors. 🔸“The Money's Yours, the People Are Ours" – 9/10 – The 2023 Mining Code requires approximately 95% of staff to be Malian nationals and at least 35% of services to be sourced from local contractors. 🔸“Just Pay Up" – 10/10 – Tax of 7.5% take scales with the gold price, plus extra levies if production transcends planned volumes. 🔸"You Come – You Build" – 6/10 – Companies must contribute just under 1% of revenue to local community development. 🔸“We'll Do It Ourselves” – 4/10 – There is a state miner SOREM, but its extraction capacity is unclear and causes doubts, also a state refinery has been announced in mid-2025, but it hasn't been completed so far. 🔸“Come Here, You Bastard!” – 4/10 – Major deposits are under control, but insurgent activity persists on the periphery and illegal artisanal mining remains an issue. Overall, Mali received a solid score of 6.1 out of 10 with strong emphasys on taxes, local content and state participation and modest requirements in other spheres. #Mali#ResourceNationalism Devils Below

💡Resource Nationalism Index After our recent experiment, we’re launching a brand-new series of articles dedicated to evaluating how West and Central African governments are trying to make their natural resources actually work for their people and economies. Behold — the Resource Nationalism Index! Each country will be judged according to the following (entirely unscientific, but funny) criteria: 🔸 “Process It First” — Are there any bans or restrictions on the export of raw resources? 🔸 “Share With the State” — Must companies hand over part of their output to the government or make first a sale offer to state funds? 🔸 “We’re in Too!” — Are mining companies required to transfer a stake to the state or sell it to local investors? 🔸 “The Money’s Yours, the People Are Ours” — Are there mandatory local-content rules for hiring staff or contractors? 🔸 “Just Pay Up” — How heavy is the tax/levies on resource extraction? 🔸 “You Come – You Build” — Are investors obliged to fund or build infrastructure for local communities? 🔸 “We’ll Do It Ourselves” — Is there a national policy promoting domestic processing and refining? 🔸 “Come Here, You Bast*rd!” — Does the government actually control its natural resources (or at least try to stop illegal mining and rebel-run operations)? All our ratings will be, of course, purely humorous — and absolutely not investment advice.

🇳🇬Nigeria’s (Another) Mine Police 🌍 Nigeria’s Senate has passed a bill to establish a Mines Rangers Service as a specialised force to police mine sites and curb illegal mining. 👑In 2022 nearly 3/4 of total Nigerian gold production went undeclared and that was a pinnacle of law enforcement compared to other years (see the chart). Solution Found? The Rangers Service proposal has drawn numerous objections from the government bodies, who warn of overlapping mandates and extra costs. ➕In fact, Nigeria already has a similar Mines Surveillance Task Force. An actual solution may be expanding the scale of large-scale gold mining - after all, the increase in the declared output in 2022 all resulted from the start of operations at the Segilola gold mine, run by Canadian Thor Explorations Ltd. Devils Below

🇨🇩DRC Loses Gold 🌍 According to the Chinese gold mining company Twangiza Mining, since May this year, militants from the M23 and allied groups have receivedabout 500 kilos of gold from the Twangiza Mining's gold pit in the eastern part of the DRC. $70M is approximately the cost of gold looted from the Twangiza mine. 💰 DRC remains a battleground where the exploitation of natural resources is both a goal and a means of survival for the warring factions. After M23 and allies took over the region, the mine and factory at Twangiza continued operating, presumably with technical support from Rwandan engineers. There are more than 150 workers left on site. We cannot get in touch with them, the company said. On October 15, drones hit the facilities at the site (on the pics above), aimed at stopping the activities there. In any case, most likely, the gold will end up where it would've if Twangiza had mined it themselves - in the UAE, China, or Russia. Devils Below

🇬🇭Ghana Loses Agriculture 🌍 Speaking on Ghanaian radio this morning, the EU Ambassador to Ghana Rune Skinnebach said that the EU may ban the import of local agriculture due to mercury contamination of products, caused by illegal gold mining - locally called “galamsey”. I wouldn’t want any consumer to have polluted goods or farm products. I wouldn’t get Ghanaian or European consumers to eat sweet potatoes with mercury residues in them. ☝️And what do human rights defenders think? 🔴 At the same time, Ghanian human rights activists are demandingthat the authorities stop deporting foreigners engaged in illegal mining. ‼️ Unlike their counterparts around the world, for Ghanaian human rights activists deportation is too soft a punishment for foreigners who should be tried and punished with full severity of the Ghanaian law. Although the agricultural export to the EU accounts for only 7% of Ghana's total exports, other countries may also refuse to import food from Ghana for fear of getting a portion of mercury along with tomatoes. After all, if things get really bad, what will the Ghanians themselves eat? Devils Below

🇲🇱 15 Years On, Orano Heads to Court Over Arlit Kidnappings 🌍 A Paris court has finally orderedFrench nuclear group Orano to stand trial over the 2010 abduction of 7 employees near its uranium operations in Arlit, northern Niger. Back in 2010 the company underestimated the jihadist threat and failed to take sufficient security measures: 🔸 The residential compound was not fenced; 🔸 Local contractors, who guarded the area, were unarmed; 🔸 No alarm system or fallback base existed in case of attack. The company also ignored the warnings issued by France’s defence attaché and local authorities. As a result, armed men seized five French nationals, a Togolese and a Madagascan - some of them were not released until October 2013. Besides the lesson of the importance of local personnel protection, this tragedy can cast light on another important topic of today - how French courts will judge decisions long after the geopolitical winds have completely changed. Devils Below

🇿🇼New Scandal Around the Chinese In Zimbabwe CONTEXT: A political struggle is escalating in Zimbabwe's ruling party over the issue of extending the President's term of office until 2030 and the anti-corruption dossier on him, allegedly submitted by the Vice-President Constantino Chiwenga on September 17. 🌍Against this background, state-controlled social media accounts have recently launched a coordinated campaign against Chinese gold miners. The purest evidence of this unfolding campaign is the publication (on the pics) about an alleged illegal export of about 100 kilograms of gold from Zimbabwe by a Chinese company. Why is this a premeditated stuffing (possibly also fake)?: 🔸 For the first time, information about this was published in the state-owned newspaper The Herald, then published on Twitter by the account of ZANU PF Patroits and then copied by much and more outlets 🔸 It is impossible to find information about Podhill on the Internet, or about the investigative report to which all such publications refer. At the same time, the head of the Zimbabwe Miners Federation, Henrietta Rushawaya, the sister of the president's Chief Secretary, is speaking up about the dangers of Chinese gold miners. It is clear that abuses on the part of the Chinese are actually taking place, as we wrote earlier, however, here we are talking about the very fact of an apparent coordinated attack. The campaign is probably aimed at several goals at once: 🔸 In this context, the president can rearrange govenrment ranks and possibly remove several high-ranking officials 🔸To shift public attention from the issue of extending the term of the presidency and other domestic issues to the Chinese "external enemy". Devils Below

🌍 Afterour post on Friday about the Malian Azawad Liberation Front dissatisfaction with the government's decision to transfer the Intahaka gold deposit to state-owned SOREM Mali S.A., the first photos from the place came out on Saturday. The photos presumably show the process of artisanal gold miners leaving the territory of the deposit at the behest of the authorities. In accordance with the address of General Mamadou Massaoulé Samaké, commander of the Eastern Theater, read out to the press on Tuesday, gold miners are required to leave the site due to the restoration of state authority over the deposit by the army: We are going to proceed with the restoration of the authority of the State in the commune of Ntaka, in its entirety in the first instance, and very particularly on the mining sites which correspond to the 97.41 km² dedicated to SOREM. It is reported that gold miners must leave the deposit before October 22. 🔴 Any decision of the government on any change in the status of the deposit has not been published yet. According to existing official papers, so far SOREM Mali S.A. has only Bamako's blessing for geological exploration at Intahaka. The exporation license, by which the general also justifies the new measures in his address, dates from August last year. ‼️ Whether Bamako is going to invite a foreign investor to the site, or SOREM will try to work there independently, the decision to expel the locals is controversial in any way. In the worst-case scenario, it can increase social tensions and promote a rapprochement of the population with jihadist groups that are widely present in the area. Devils Below

🇳🇪Niger VS CNPC 🌍 Niger is escalating its oil faceoff with China's CNPC, setting a deadline of October 30 to revise the petroleum agreements or face a potential production shutdown. The government's demands fueling the dispute include: 🔸 More Nigeriens in decision-making positions 🔸 Pay parity between local and foreign staff. 🤝 The Chinese state-owned oil company has been in negotiations with the government of Niger since March, when three of its top executives were expelled due to disputes over pay gaps between local workers and Chinese expatriates. Meanwhile, CNPC's exports continue uninterrupted, with crude oil from Agadem field flowing through its Niger-Benin pipeline at around 90,000 barrels per day. The pipeline's construction by CNPC started in 2019 and completed in March last year. Supposedly, the recent escalation is connected to the appointment of Abdoulkarim Mohamed Ali as Secretary-General of the Petroleum Ministry on October 7. Devils Below

🗺️Ore to Shore: Lobito Corridor Awakens 🌍 Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) has recently anounced its plans to invite companies to realize the Lobito railway project connecting copper deposits in Zambia and Southern DRC to the port of Lobito, Angola. The bidding process is expected to begin next year. 🔴 The Lobito corridor has the backing of the US as an alternative to the Tazara railway, which connects Zambia with Tanzania's ports and has the backing of the PRC. Both Lobito and its Beijing-financed doppleganger are aimed at bypassing logistics bottlenecks in South Africa that have slowed copper and cobalt exports. ‼️ The intensification of Lobito corridor construction will follow the recent revitalization of the Tazara project: on September 29 China, Zambia and Tanzania signed a $1.4 billion deal to rebuild the Tanzania-Zambia railway. Africa Finance Corp. doesn't explicitly say what geopolitical sides they're on, but AFC has often acted as a partner in many US infrastructure projects in Africa, working with JP Morgan Chase and the US Development Finance Corp. The two latest consecutive chairs of the board of AFC have both come from Citibank, where they both had stayed for several decades. Devils Below