Devils Below

🇱🇷Liberia: Idle Talk in Washington 🌍 Liberia's Foreign Minister Sara Beysolow Nyanti met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at White House. The most widely discussed takeaway of this meeting was the possibility of US participation in Liberia’s critical minerals sector. 🔸 While such talks may bear some diplomatic significance, it appears that the US government does not wield any real capacity to increase its involvement in the extraction of critical minerals in Liberia. 🔴 The US (and especially its eccentric leader) seems to be willing to do deals with anyone when it comes to minerals, but so far, all those deals have had one problem - American investors aren't really interested in getting involved in USG-backed projects. ‼️ Their Chinese adversaries counterparts are vice-versa eager to invest in no matter what concerning critical elements - and they usually do not wait for any intergovernmental agreements to set up production lines. ⁉️ Liberia is just another instance, though quite exemplory, of this difference. The country today doesn't have any major mineral processing facilities other than its gold and iron plants - the US would therefore need to make massive investments. This is unlikely to happen due to the significant pain it already causes for the US to revive even its own domestic processing of critical minerals. Devils Below

What conclusions can be drawn from our research? 👇 🔴There are two undisputed champions - Mali and Zimbabwe, both pushing for complete domestic refining of their gold. They are followed by the DRC (copper + cobalt), Senegal and Nigeria (oil), who insist on partial domestic processing.The latter two countries mandate priority sale of oil to local refineries. ‼️The governments are more likely to demand higher extent of domestic processing of gold and oil, which may be explained by the relative simplicity of their beneficiation in comparison with other materials (e.g. uranium in Niger, bauxites in Guinea, phosphates in Togo). In addition, the desire to establish internal purification of gold must be spurred by the unprecedented high gold prices, while local oil refining is crucial to replace petroleum imports, that lead to constatnt lack of foreign currency in the country. ⁉️Some countries bring forward requirements, that physically cannot be met due to the absence of local beneficiation facilities. The Malian Mining Code, for example, requires that gold be processed into bullion at home, however, a local refinery is still under construction. Another example is Senegal, which mandates priority sale of oil products to local consumers, but its only oil refinery cannot process certain grades of local crude oil. Finally, except for certain outstanding instances, most countries fail to adopt policies that require greater value addition at home, which means, first and foremost, missed opportunities to improve the lives of citizens. Devils Below

🌍 Who Is Most Demanding? Today Western media is full of complaints about the treacherous "resource nationalism" of African governments. On the other hand, African politicians themselves in their speeches adore revoking the need to make resource extraction work for the benefit of the nation. So, a curious person cannot help but wander: To what extent are different African governments actually committed to nationally oriented resource exploitation? We took up the challenge of figuring out. We chose 2 parametres as a litmus test for each country: 🔸 To what extent should raw materials be processed domestically before exporting? (Id est at what stage of beneficiation can a material be exported according to the national law?) 🔸 What share of newly created mining enterprises does each government legally assign to state-owned equity or local investors? We only zeroed in on 22countries of West and Central Africa. In addition, we've only considered the main type of resource exports of each country in accordance with its share in export revenues (e.g. gold for Ghana, oil for Nigeria etc). 📋 The results of this humble research are on the pictures above. See the explanation below. 👇

🇿🇼 Zimbabwe's Lithium Medal For Consistency 🌐Another success of Zimbabwean localization policy - in early 2026 China's Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt will start producing lithium sulphate from its new $400 million plant on Zimbabwean soil. 🔴As we've mentioned earlier,Zimbabwe is one of the most consistent champions of local resource processing, which consistently forces foreign investors to establish refining and beneficiation facilities within its borders. ‼️Lithium sulphate is neither raw material, nor the end product. It serves as the bridge between lithium concentrate and battery-grade materials like lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate. ⁉️ Having imposed restrictions on raw lithium exports in 2022, Harare went on to ban as well the export of lithium concentrates (in force from 2027). The latter is apparetly the main factor that pushed the Chinese into greater commitment to local production. Repotedly,Zimbabwe's lithium sulphate production from the plant will reach 60,000 tonnes annually. Devils Below

🇬🇳Guinea and Mali 🇲🇱 - Another Denials of "Resource Nationalism" 🌏 Reuters says Guinea’s bauxite exports surged by 23% year on year in the 3rd quarter 2025. Guinea's leadership was criticized earlier this year for the decision to review several dozen (50+) mining licenses - what some, including the mentioned outlet, continue to call "resorce nationalism". The most recent act of a license revocation took place on October 12, 2025. In contrast to the loudy media outcries, the attention of Guinea's government was mainly devoted to abandoned and underperforming licenses, which is apparently too sophisticated for liberal journalists to understand. Guinea thereby let responsible producers do their job while rising the effectiveness of stagnant assets. 🌏 Another story comes from Mali where Allied Gold reportedbetter-than-expected performance in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Despite the "resource nationalism" of the Bamako government, Allied Gold mainteined the planned levels of production at its Sadiola mine in Western Mali. Even a slight delayin fuel supply did not affect the overall performance. ❗️The main lesson here for any powers-that-be is obvious: What metters is not how a loudy journalist shouting about investment climate would perceive you, but how your policy actually help the nation benefit to the full from its natural wealth. Devils Below

🇲🇱Mali: Separatists VS Investments 🌏 Mali's anti-government Azavad Liberation Front issued a communiqué, wherein it rejects ... the illegal decision of the junta of Bamako to accord to SOREM Mali S.A. the right to exploit the Intahaka gold mine, situated in the region of Gao. ❓ SOREM is a Malian mining company with a 100% public ownership, that since its creation in 2022 has taken charge of several mines abandoned by their owners - the Intahaka mine, Morila mine and Yatela mine. ‼️ The most intriguing part is that the decision in question was effectively made by Bamako more than a year ago - on August 28, 2024. If we cross out the option where the ALF merely has a very pitiable internet connection, the most viable explanation of such a delay is that the ALF is foreshadowing something - namely, anotherdeal like one that has been concluded recently with Flagship on the Morila mine. The ALF warns any foreign enterprise, institution or partner against any economic or mining activity... 🤝 Whether the ALF is aware of another upcoming agreement, which would imply cooperation with a foreign investor as is the case of Morila mine and Flagship, or it's just a false start,the message is clearly targeted at foreign audience. However, if Intahaka could successfully operate under Bamako's oversight all this time and even serve as an alledged source of the Wagner / Africa Corps funding, why would anyone now believe such threats? Devils Below

🇩🇪 Deutschland Returns To Africa 🌏 Germany’s leading business lobby for Sub-Saharan Africa (SAFRI) urges Berlin to execute a decisive “Africa shift”, binding raw-materials pacts, bigger bets on AfCFTA, and fewer China-centric dependencies. 🚢 By 1914 Imperial Germany held four African colonies - Togoland, Kamerun, German South-West Africa (Namibia), German East Africa (Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi). Berlin’s next big attempt to project power into Africa came with Rommel’s Afrika Korps, landing at Tripoli on 11 Feb 1941 to duel for the Suez cahnnel and the Middle East oil. However, now one should not expect that the Germans will simply come to extract resources. Having been bullied by the whole world after WWII, Germany learned to follow subtle ways - and what they will go for is "green" energy, solar panels, patches for ozone holes. 💵 While the German left will shout about "authoritarian African dictators" and the right will shout about squandering taxpayers' money on bike paths in Nigeria, German capital will impose the "green" agenda and sell overpriced wind turbines to countries where half the population lives without electricity. Devils Below

🇳🇬 The Plight of Nigeria's Steel 🌏 Nigeria is reportedly seeking Chinese partnership in another attempt to revitalize the Ajaokuta Steel Plant and the National Iron Ore Mining Company (NIOMCO), out of action since the 20th century. 🇷🇺 In September 2024 Nigeria already signed an agreement with Russian Tyazhmashpromexport (TPE), the original builders of Ajaokuta, with the same objectives. Due to constraints as a result of the Russia–Ukraine war, we are now exploring partnership with the People’s Republic of China for the revitalisation of both ASCL and NIOMCO, said the country's Minister of Steel Development. Ajaokuta project is a child of hard luck and soft managers: ♦️ After construction Ajaokuta was taken from TPE, which was going through countless hardships resulting from the collapse of the USSR ♦️ Then in 2003 American SOLGAS was awarded the concession, but lost it less than a year later ♦️ Since 2004 the plant fell into the hands of Indian Global Infrastructure Nigeria Ltd, which eventually also failed to kick off production at Ajaokuta Now it's the Chinese's turn to try their luck in place where the rest of the world has not succeded. Today Nigeria is in dire need of this plant because it still doesn't have its own production of materials for military hardware. However, initially it was seen as a potential driver of the country's industrialization, that never happened. In my first presidency, there was the general belief that steelmaking was at the heart of industrialisation. India had built the first steel plant with Russian help, and they built their second almost without help, noted the then-president Obasanjo. Devils Below

🇳🇦Namibia Clings On To Diamonds 🌏 Namibia's Central Bank head Johannes !Gawaxablobbiedon Wednesday (October 15) for an extension of a royalty discount granted to the coutry's largest diamond miner Namdeb in 2021. ❓ Namdeb - JV of De Beers and Namibia's Govt - had planned to wrap up its operations in Namibia by 2023, but with the help of the royalty discount (royalty rate was reduced from 10% to 5% until 2025) the government managed to talk De Beers into extension of operations to 2042. 🔨 Now, in 2025, with the diamond prices lower than ever, De Beers' current owner Anglo Amercian is trying to dispose of its share and Windhoek along with Gaborone are trying to keep their pivotal diamond indutries alive one way or another. In the communiqué of the Second Session of Namibia-Botswana Bi-National Comission of October 10, both countries expressed their concerns over declining diamond revenues and plans to develop joint strategies to keep afloat natural diamonds. Devils Below

🇨🇲 Old Biya's Oil Legacy Cameroon's then Prime Minister Paul Biya straightened his tie as he went to office - probably he did not even suspect that on this day an event occurred that would forever change the future of his country. It was a rainy day of November, 1977 and it was the day when Cameroon pumped out its first gallon of oil for sale. As the 92-year-old President is going to leave his throne one way or another, it's high time to assess what his presidency has given to Cameroon, in our case through the prism of its mineral wealth. Biya kicked off his 43-year long séjour in office when French company Elf Aquitaine had already become a monopolist developer of Cameroon's off-shore oil deposits, controlling nearly 3/4 of the national oil output at some point. It took next to nothing for the new president and corporates to find a common ground and a common interest. One day, I was received at the Cameroonian presidency by President Paul Biya. He needed 45 million for his campaign ... They need cash and they need this cash to escape from their Finance Minister. recollected Alfred Sirven, ex-manager of Elf Aquitaine in 2009 The french company supposedly supported Biya in all his elections in 1982 - 2000. In return, the president didn't bother himself to establish any resemblance of financial discipline in oil. For the first time oil revenues appeared on the state's budget sheets in 1989, a dozen years after oil started generate income for Elf. As a result, in 1977-2007 Cameroon's public budget lost at least $7 BILLION, according toan IMF study of 2012. Those who steal from one person spend their lives in shackles and chains - those who steal from all people, in purple and gold. Elf passed away in 2000, but its legacy lived on. With corrpution soaking into all layers of the state bureacracy, it's no surprise that not only Biya himself, but also his national oil refinery SONARA and national oil company SNH got also tainted by bribery: in 2012-2015 Anglo-Swiss Glencore was caught disbursing some $11 million in exchange for favourable treatment and non-market prices for crude oil. The most unpleasant part of this story is that a country where oil accounts for nearly 40% of exports (50-60% if natural gas is counted), still doesn't posess its any refining capacity of its, except for the state-owned SONARA refinery suspended 7 years ago, which makes it dependent not only on crude oil exports, but also on petroleum imports. Meanwhile, with Biya's 43 anniversary in power looming ahead on November 6, 2025, his country's GDP per capita, stands at the same level that saw his ascension to power in 1982. Devils Below

🇬🇭 Ghana's Blockchain Madness 🌏 On Monday Ghana's Gold Board Chief Sammy Gyamfi announced the upcoming launch of blockchain-powered "track-and-trace" system supposed to put on and to illegal gold mining (also known in Ghana as "galamsey"). The suggested scheme seems simple: you mine gold - you get a special blockchain tracker for every single gramm - the Gold Board can make sure no refinery gets gold from those who mine illegally. ❓Our world, however, is full of unanswered questions and mysteries. Only 10% of the ocean has been explored, we don't know how Egyptians built their pyramids or who killed Kennedy - CIA or FBI - as well as how blockchain can actually help fight "galamsey". 👁Illegal gold mining is called illegal for its ability to bypass official procedures. The Gold Board has already established a monopoly to by gold from small-scale mining, which means no factory or refinery can on their own buy the production of artisanal miners. Those who continue doing so will just make sure gold gets its crypto-lebel somewhere in the middle of production chain. Those who smuggle gold across the border to the UAE and India will continue smuggling it to the UAE and India. 🎛Unfortunately, blockchain cannot not cure corruption and establish the control of a state over its own borders, nor can AI. People still have to make some real efforts and Ghana's government had better not neglect this. Devils Below

🇨🇩In the DRC China Buys Entire Companies Chinese miners already have within their grasp some 70% of the DRC's cobalt production. Today, the scarlet banner of the PRC is rising above the Congolese gold sector. 🌏China’s Chengtun Mining Group is set to buy Canadian Loncor Gold for about $261 million — handing its Adumbi project in northeastern DRC to the Chinese miner. If it closes, the deal plants a Chinese flag near the country’s only large-scale producer of today - Kibali, which accounts for some 90% of the gold production in the DRC and which is owned evenly by Barrick and AngloGold Ashanti. It is not normal that those with whom the country has signed exploitation contracts are getting richer while our people remain poor… said Congolese president Tshisekedi in 2021. 💵 While the DRC is trying to harness the China-dominated cobalt sector and bring to life the US-sponsored peace framework along with Trump's another mineral deal, Beijing has a strong argument in favour of China's preserving (and even expanding) presence in the DRC - its seemingly endless money and rediness to invest in risky assets. Devils Below