Could Trump Put Any Kind of Trust In a Deal With Iran?
Iran’s foreign minister said that the strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels, reinforcing hopes for an eventual end to the war in the Middle East and sending oil prices tumbling despite analysts’ warnings that there will be no immediate widespread resumption of passage through the vital waterway.
In a barrage of social media posts, Donald Trump claimed on Friday that Iran had agreed never to close the strategic waterway again, hailing “A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD!”
However, Abbas Araghchi’s pledge was given only qualified support by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has reinforced its already powerful authority in Tehran during the war.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Ghalibaf, later warned that if the US blockade continued, “the strait of Hormuz will not remain open”.
Whether the strait was open or closed and the regulations governing it “will be determined by the field, not by social media”, Ghalibaf added, in a swipe at the US president.
Trump also said that Iran had agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear programme, and would not receive any frozen funds from the US.
In an interview with Bloomberg, he said that talks over a deal to end the war would “probably” be held this weekend.
Separately, the US president told Reuters that Washington would work with Iran to recover its enriched uranium, which he referred to as “nuclear dust” that would be retrieved at “a nice leisurely pace” and moved to the US. Iranian authorities made no immediate comment on the claim, but Tehran has long asserted that its right to enrich uranium inside the country is sacrosanct.
When asked about a report that the US was considering a $20bn cash for uranium deal, Trump said: “It’s totally false. No money is changing hands.”
Araghchi statement that the strait was “declared completely open” came as a new 10-day truce in Lebanon entered its first full day, partly pausing fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah Islamist militant movement and offering a fragile relief in parts of the country after weeks of relentless Israeli airstrikes that have killed hundreds of civilians.
Trump said that Israel would cease attacks on Lebanon, claiming: “They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A.”
Minutes before that post, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, uploaded a video to his official YouTube page declaring that Israel was not done yet with Hezbollah.
He said: “We have not yet finished the job. There are things we plan to do to address the remaining rocket threat and the drone threat.”
Soon after, reports emerged that an Israeli drone strike had killed one person in southern Lebanon. The Israeli defence minister, Israel Katz, insisted that the IDF was not withdrawing from the country and that military action could resume.
Iranian state television quoted a senior military official saying commercial vessels would be allowed to travel through the strait of Hormuz but only along a determined route and with the permission of the IRGC navy.
The US blockade of Iranian ports and shipping will remain in place for the moment, Trump said, and few vessels are likely to risk passage through the strait in such uncertain circumstances, meaning any return to normality is still distant.
“The naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete,” the US president posted on his Truth Social network, adding that “this process should go very quickly”.
The strait’s closure by Iran shortly after the conflict began has spiked the price of oil, fuelled inflation and threatens a deep economic crisis that could trigger recessions around the world.
Trump, however, said that he had rebuffed an offer from Nato. “They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger!” he posted on social media, before thanking Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and Qatar.
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US forces have struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran since the start of Operation Epic Fury, according to a statement released by US Central Command on Wednesday.
Since the start of the war, the Trump administration has sent mixed and at times contradictory signals about the US’s objectives.
Trump has repeatedly claimed that Iran’s leadership was seeking a ceasefire, and in a Wednesday social media post described Iran’s “new regime president” as having “just asked” for one – which Tehran called “false and baseless”.
Furthermore, it was unclear who Trump had spoken to – Iran has a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after he was killed on the opening day of US-led airstrikes against Iran. Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian took office in July 2024.
Before the president’s speech on Wednesday, Pezeshkian appealed directly to the American people with a message of his own. “Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war?” Pezeshkian asked in a letter posted in English on his X account. “Was there any objective threat from Iran to justify such behavior?”
Pezeshkian suggested the US had entered the war at Israel’s urging, and insisted that Iran’s attacks on its neighbors was a “measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense”.
“Is ‘America First’ truly among the priorities of the US government today?” he asked.
Complicating the picture further, Trump has lashed out at the US’s allies, citing their refusal to join the war effort and inaction to reopen the strait of Hormuz in a series of escalating social media posts and interviews.
In his remarks on Wednesday evening he made no mention of Nato, but earlier in the day he told Reuters he was “absolutely without question” considering withdrawing from Nato.
He also told the Telegraph that he was “never swayed” by the 77-year-old military alliance and “always knew they were a paper tiger”.
Trump has suggested that a ceasefire would depend on Tehran reopening the strait of Hormuz, while indicating that US forces could be “out of Iran pretty quickly”. He left open the possibility of “spot hits” inside Iran if necessary.
In his speech, the president also took pains to distinguish the current conflict from America’s often lengthy past wars, calling the 32-day military campaign “so powerful, so brilliant”.
With the war in its fifth week, key US objectives remain unclear. Trump has downplayed concerns about Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, dismissing it as too deeply buried underground to matter.
He had previously argued that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was a major justification for the war. Analysts have disputed the US president’s claims that Iran was close to building a nuclear weapon.
Meanwhile, thousands of US troops remain positioned in the region, providing the option of a broader ground campaign after weeks of airstrikes targeting Iran.
#iran#trump#hormuz#strait#nato
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Trump Bogged Down. Does He Have a Way Out?
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Trump used a prime time address to the nation on Wednesday evening to declare the month-long war in Iran a success “nearing completion”, despite a spiraling conflict that has caused economic turmoil across the globe, fractured transatlantic alliances and eroded the president’s approval ratings.
In remarks from the White House, Trump argued that the US’s “little journey” to Iran had nearly accomplished “all of America’s military objectives”, but offered little clarity on how he planned to wind down the conflict over the next “two to three weeks”.
“We are on the cusp of ending Iran’s sinister threat to America and the world,” Trump said in the 19-minute speech, delivered from Cross Hall of the White House. “We have all the cards. They have none.”
Acknowledging the economic pain caused by the conflict, he blamed a “short-term” rise in gas prices on Iran’s actions, and insisted the US had become energy independent.
Oil prices rose and Asian stocks traded lower immediately after Trump’s address, which did little to soothe investor concerns over the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
The US president reiterated his call for other nations to help secure the global oil chokepoint: “Grab it and cherish it.”
Iran has effectively closed the strait since the beginning of the conflict, causing oil prices to soar. In the US, the cost of gas surged past an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022 this week.
Trump did not mention a looming deadline he set for Iran to open the strait. Amid the uncertainty, brent crude – the international standard – jumped 4.9% to $106.16 a barrel, while gold dipped 2% to $4,718.70 an ounce and silver lost 4.9% to $72.39 an ounce.
Ticking through a list of claimed achievements, Trump said Iran’s navy and air force had been decimated, leaving the country weak and “no longer a threat” to the US and the world. He, however, said the US would continue to hit Iran “extremely hard” for next several weeks.
“We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong,” he said, even as he said “discussions were ongoing”.
Democrats criticised Trump’s address as “incoherent” and doing little to answer “the most basic questions the American people”.
Democratic senator Mark Warner said in a statement that Trump owed Americans more answers about a conflict that has driven up prices on gas and other essentials, “with consequences that will continue to ripple through the economy for a long time”.
Senator Chris Murphy said: “No one in America, after listening to that speech, knows whether we are escalating or deescalating.”
The Republican senator Ted Cruz backed Trump, saying he “was exactly right tonight”, while former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green said all she heard from his speech was “war”, and “nothing” to lower the costs of living.
The war continues to grind on, with thousands of deaths in Iran and in countries across the Middle East since 28 February.
Strikes rocked Tehran on Wednesday morning. And Israel said it had carried out two waves of attacks on Tehran and claimed to have killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut.
Iran has continued to retaliate, with missile attacks on central Israel and across the Middle East – including a barrage timed just hours before the start of the Jewish holiday of Passover.
According to estimates from the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent societies, at least 1,900 people have been killed and 20,000 injured in Iran since the war began, though precise figures are difficult to verify.
In Lebanon, more than 1,300 people have been killed, according to the country’s health ministry. Most of those who have died have been Lebanese civilians, but Hezbollah estimates about 400 have been its fighters.
And a total of 19 people have been killed and 515 injured in Israel since the war began.
#iran#trump#hormuz#strait#nato
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“Make no mistake: You won’t gain anything through war crimes. The only real solution is respecting the rights of the Iranian people and ending this dangerous game.”
Trump’s expletive-laden post also drew criticism on Capitol Hill.
“Happy Easter, America. As you head off to church and celebrate with friends and family, the President of the United States is ranting like an unhinged madman on social media,” the Democratic Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, said on X.
He’s threatening possible war crimes and alienating allies. This is who he is, but this is not who we are. Our country deserves so much better.”
The destruction on Thursday of the region’s tallest bridge, hailed in Iran as an engineering marvel, pointed to a grim new phase of the war, in which the US president has threatened to throw Iran back to the “stone ages”.
During war, international law protects civilians and what are known as civilian objects, such as infrastructure, rules that are enshrined in the Geneva conventions.
Oona A Hathaway, a professor of international law at Yale University, said the US president had offered no explanation that would make the civilian objects he has threatened to target into lawful military objectives. She also said other nations had an obligation to ensure respect of the Geneva conventions, and not to aid and abet wrongful acts.
“If these threatened attacks were to be carried out, they would constitute war crimes,” said Hathaway. “Immiserating the civilian population for bargaining leverage is not lawful.”
Iranian steel manufacturing sites, petrochemicals plants, universities and medical facilities have all been bombed during the joint US-Israeli campaign.
About 81,000 civilian sites have been damaged, including 61,000 homes, 19,000 commercial sites, 275 medical centres, and nearly 500 schools, according to Iranian authorities.
The Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said a number of its facilities had been targeted by Iranian drone attacks, resulting in fires and “significant material losses”.
Kuwait also reported that two power and water desalination plants sustained “significant material damage” after being attacked by Iranian drones.
The attack happened on the last day of the holidays to mark Iranian new year, and according to reports many families were picnicking nearby when missiles punched through the middle of the bridge, sending up a giant fireball.
The day trippers, who had pitched tents to enjoy the holiday, ran screaming. Local authorities said that 13 people were killed and 95 injured in the attack.
The bridge had not yet been opened. It was so far known only as B1, ahead of an inauguration due in the summer.
A civil engineer in Iran who worked on other significant infrastructure projects said that recent strikes on civilian infrastructure, all built with indigenous knowledge, had already “made it impossible to conceal hostility toward the Iranian people behind the mask of mere opposition to the government”.
But it was the strike on the bridge that was most painful for him, as he said it had no military, nuclear or government link.
“The target of this attack was nothing other than Iran’s pride,” he said. “A nation that has achieved such a level of self-sufficiency and productivity cannot be returned to the stone age.”
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Trump Promised To Send Iran to Hell
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Trump issued an expletive-laden warning on Sunday that Tehran had until Tuesday night to reopen the strait of Hormuz or the US would obliterate Iran’s power plants and bridges.
Iran’s parliament speaker responded with a warning that the US president’s “reckless moves” would mean “our whole region is going to burn”.
The latest threat of escalation in the five-week war followed the rescue of a second crew member of a downed F-15E fighter by US commandos, ending a two-day search after the warplane crashed in south-west Iran.
Iran distributed images showing the wreckage of several aircraft, but did not deny that US forces had rescued the officer who had taken cover in a mountainous area while American special forces and Iranian troops raced to find him.
Trump has extended deadlines at least twice for Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz, which has sent the price of oil shooting up, and shifted his deadline again from Monday to Tuesday in his expletive-laden post, before later making clear he meant Tuesday night.
The US president posted on his Truth Social website: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
Crude oil prices opened higher on Monday, with the West Texas Intermediate – the US benchmark – rising 1.86% to more than $112 a barrel and Brent climbing above $110.
Trump separately suggested that there is a “good chance” of an agreement with Iran on Monday, telling Fox News that negotiations were taking place. “If they don’t make a deal and fast, I’m considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil,” he said.
Later on Sunday, he posted again, giving a more precise deadline of: “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!”
However, Trump has repeatedly said since the US-Israeli war started on 28 February that Iran wants to make a deal.
Iran has acknowledged that messages have been passed between the two sides, including through Pakistan. But Tehran insists that it has not entered into peace talks.
Iranian officials also fear that they will be targeted when they break cover to head to any negotiations, according to diplomatic intermediaries.
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iran parliament, responded to Trump’s latest threats in a social media post.
“Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living HELL for every single family, and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahu’s commands,” he wrote.
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Esmail Baghaei, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, on Monday acknowledged Tehran had received a 15-point proposal from the Trump administration after talks on Sunday between the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
However, he said there had been no direct negotiations with Washington, adding that the US demands were “excessive, unrealistic and irrational”.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, dismissed the talks in Islamabad as cover for more US troops being brought to the region, adding that Iranian forces were “waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional partners for ever”. 🔥
Human rights groups criticised Trump’s threat of punitive strikes on civilian infrastructure. Erika Guevara-Rosas of Amnesty International said:
“Intentionally attacking civilian infrastructure such as power plants is generally prohibited.”
Even in the limited cases that they qualify as military targets, a party still cannot attack power plants if this may cause disproportionate harm to civilians.
“Given that such power plants are essential for meeting the basic needs and livelihoods of tens of millions of civilians, attacking them would be disproportionate and thus unlawful under international humanitarian law, and could amount to a war crime.” ⚖️
While Trump officials, most prominently Pete Hegseth, have dismissed conflict law, Washington’s conduct of its joint war with Israel against Iran has had serious diplomatic ramifications.
Spain announced on Monday that its airspace was closed to US planes involved in the conflict. ✈️
There is a lack of clarity over the status of Pakistan’s efforts to mediate talks aimed at ending the war, which is threatening to plunge the global economy into recession and trigger shortages of food and pharmaceuticals. 🌍📉
Oil rose to almost $117 a barrel before easing back. Brent crude is now on track for its largest ever monthly gain, up 54% since the start of March. 📊
The International Monetary Fund said “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth worldwide” if the conflict continues to disrupt Gulf flows.
Experts warn that a US ground operation could push the conflict into a deeper regional war. 🪖
Maziyar Ghiabi noted the war is moving toward a point of no return, with risks of a broader conflict involving Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Tehran struck a critical water and electrical plant in Kuwait and an oil refinery in Israel, while Israel and the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran. ⚠️
Fighting continued to spread in Lebanon, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired missiles at Israel for the first time since the war began. 🚀
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🌍 Trump’s Secret Plan:⚠️
“using Israel to topple down the Iranian government to appropriate the Strait of Hormuz”
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Trump has threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power stations and fresh water plants if Tehran does not agree to peace terms “shortly”, even as he claimed diplomatic progress in ending the war that was instigated by the US and Israel. ⚔️
Tehran has remained defiant during the month-long conflict, describing US peace proposals as “excessive, unrealistic and irrational” and firing waves of missiles at Israel. 🚀
The risk of further escalation, including a US ground operation to seize Kharg Island, continued to send tremors through financial markets. Oil prices are on course for a record monthly rise. 📈
In a post on his Truth Social network, Trump expressed confidence that a negotiated settlement would soon be reached, adding that the US was in “serious discussions” with what he characterised as “a more reasonable regime” in Tehran.
But he said if a deal was not struck – including to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane – US forces would destroy “all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)”. 💥
Destroying civilian infrastructure such as power and water facilities would be illegal under international humanitarian law and would probably constitute a war crime. ⚖️
Later on Monday, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said Trump would be willing to ask Arab countries to help foot the bill for the Iran war. 💰
“I think it’s something the president would be quite interested in calling them to do,” she told reporters. “It’s an idea that I know that he has.”
The proposal adds a striking new dimension to the warfare, suggesting Washington may seek to offload war costs on to the very Gulf states now scrambling to broker a peace deal.
The US president’s social media post and indications from the White House press team came amid continued garbled messaging.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said his preference would be to “take the oil in Iran”, which analysts believe would require using US troops to seize Kharg Island. ⛽️
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Trump’s admission on Wednesday that he knew no short way out of the impasse pushed oil prices close to $125 a barrel – as high as during the first weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Maj Gen Mohsen Rezaee, the military adviser to the supreme leader, wrote on his X account: “The siege scenario will fail and Iran will never lose the strait of Hormuz. History will record that the Iranian nation sank the superpower of America in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
Both the field and diplomacy are moving forward with the coordination of the leader of the revolution and the support of the people.”
The world considers the strait an international waterway, open to all without paying tolls, and Gulf Arab nations, chief among them the United Arab Emirates, have decried Iran’s control of the strait as akin to piracy.
Iran has proposed that talks with the US on its nuclear programme be parked while both sides agree terms for allowing ships to resume passage along the strait.
In Iran the foreign ministry has urged its parliament to recognise that Iran’s plans being hatched in conjunction with Oman do not require fresh Iranian legislation. It is also urging that Iran avoid terms such as “tolls”, and instead assert its pre-existing right to charge fees for services rendered.
Rubio, and the UK foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, held talks in Washington on Wednesday about the strait.
An email sent by the state department to embassies reported by the Wall Street Journal suggested the US was trying to become involved in largely European-led plans for the oversight of the strait once the conflict ends.
The US is offering to coordinate diplomacy and communications between countries using the strait by reviving and broadening a 12 nation International Maritime Security Construct, a pre-existing naval operation set up in after threats to shipping by the Iranian navy.
#khamenei#strait#hormuz#iran#control
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