Post #15282

Swiss Gets a Deal? USD/CHF is hovering just below the 0.8000 mark, sitting on a key bullish trendline that has held since mid October. A clean break below could open the door for further downside and a potential trend shift in the short term. The Swiss franc gained momentum after reports of a potential U.S.–Switzerland trade deal, which could cut tariffs on Swiss exports from 39% to 15% within two weeks. On top of that, SNB Chairman Schlegel reaffirmed that negative rates aren’t coming back anytime soon, while expecting inflation to rise slightly — keeping policy tight. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to lose steam despite strong data, as traders price in a 63% chance of a December rate cut. If optimism around the trade deal holds and the SNB’s hawkish tone continues, the franc could stay supported, putting more pressure on USD/CHF to break lower.