A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures

Gold Forecast: The "Golden Era" Is Now Officially Behind Us When the Iran war began, the consensus was unanimous — buy gold on the open. Anyone who did has been in a drawdown ever since. Gold has fallen nearly 20% despite being the textbook safe-haven asset. The environment that fueled gold's rally has reversed. Central banks have pivoted from easing to tightening. Yields are at multi-decade highs. The holding cost of a non-yielding asset is punitive when bonds offer 4–5% risk-free. Technically, the $4,200–$4,400 zone is meaningful support. This range acted as resistance, was broken, retested, and has absorbed violent selloffs multiple times. The 200-day SMA is now converging with this level. A risk-defined long attempt at that zone becomes defensible only if the macro backdrop shifts — a ceasefire, declining yields, and central banks reopening the door to easing. Without those catalysts, gold's structural headwinds remain intact. read the full article here. — Alan

Global Yields Analysis: The Bond Market Is Now Snapping Government bonds are selling off simultaneously across every major economy. Japan's 30-year yield hit 4% for the first time since 1999. UK 10-year gilts reached 5.14%, highest since 2008. US 10-year Treasuries at 4.55%, a one-year high. G7 yields up an average 15 basis points this week alone. The driver is singular: war-driven inflation. Markets now price a 60% probability of a Fed hike this year — before the war, two cuts were expected. Only 4 of 24 major central banks retain any meaningful chance of cutting rates. The transmission to equities is direct. The 10-year Treasury yield now exceeds the S&P's earnings yield — a mathematical argument for selling stocks that has not existed since 2003. For risk to stabilize, either oil must decline on a ceasefire or central banks must act decisively enough to restore credibility. Neither has materialized. Until one does, this repricing has further to run. read the full article here. — Alan

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U.S. Dollar Analysis: The Fed Is Now Frozen With "Hike Risk" DXY at 98.60, fourth consecutive session of gains — the longest streak since late March. Price has reclaimed the 200-day SMA, with 98.00 confirming as support. The next target for bulls is 99.50, the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range. This week's data has reinforced the Fed's hold. CPI at 3.8%, PPI at 6.0% annually, and import prices at 1.9% — nearly double consensus — have eliminated rate cut expectations for 2026. Hike probability is building as inflation broadens beyond energy into services and trade. Warsh's Senate confirmation as Fed chair adds a forward-looking variable. The transition is unlikely to shift near-term policy, but markets will begin pricing his communication style and priorities in the coming weeks. The critical variable remains the Middle East. If a resolution materializes — lower oil, declining yields, easing inflation — the rate repricing supporting the dollar reverses. read the full article here. — Alan

GBP/USD Analysis: Leadership Turmoil Caps Pound Growth GBP/USD is trading below the 1.3550–1.3600 resistance zone that has defined the upper boundary of recent price action. The political dimension has become a material factor. Health Secretary Streeting's resignation and anticipated leadership challenge against Starmer, combined with Labour's losses in last week's local elections, has introduced a layer of domestic uncertainty weighing on sterling. The economic data presents a counterweight. Q1 GDP expanded 0.6% with annual growth reaching 1.1% — above expectations. BoE's Breeden indicated rate hikes could wait until later this year, characterizing the Middle East conflict as less inflationary than 2022. Sterling is caught between resilient growth and political instability. The 1.3550–1.3600 resistance zone remains the technical inflection point — reclaiming it likely requires resolution of the political overhang. read the full article here. — Alan

AUD/USD Analysis: RBA Hikes Meet a Resurgent US Dollar AUD/USD is testing the 0.7200 level — a well-defined weekly resistance zone. A sustained hold above this threshold would constitute a break and retest, confirming a shift in the medium-term technical bias to the upside. The fundamental case for AUD remains intact. The RBA hiked to 4.35% with markets now pricing an 80% probability of a further increase to 4.60% by August. Wage growth, while moderating slightly on an annual basis, remains consistent with persistent labor cost pressures that underpin the inflation trajectory. The constraint on further AUD/USD upside is the US data. CPI at 3.8% yesterday and today's PPI at 1.4% MoM — the largest monthly increase since March 2022 — have materially strengthened the dollar. The Aussie's strength is more visible on the crosses. AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF, and AUD/NZD are reflecting the RBA's hawkish positioning more cleanly, where dollar strength is not offsetting the rate differential. — Alan

NZD/USD Analysis: Rate Hike Bets Fade Amid Strong Dollar NZD/USD at 0.5936, positioned above the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages — all providing dynamic support. The pair is rangebound between 0.5850 support and 0.6100 resistance, with price at the midpoint of this 250-pip range. Gov. Breman's indication that core inflation remained within the RBNZ's target band during Q1 has tempered May rate hike expectations to roughly 35%. A July increase, however, remains fully priced as elevated energy costs from the Hormuz disruption continue feeding into broader prices. Tuesday's US CPI at 3.8% and this morning's 6.0% PPI has compounded dollar strength, narrowing the window for NZD appreciation. The rate differential continues to favor the dollar as the Fed's policy stance shifts from frozen to hike-risk territory. Near-term direction hinges on the May 28 NZ Budget and developments in Middle East negotiations. A sustained break below the 200-day SMA would tilt the technical picture to the downside. — Alan

Both of my targets have been hit on AUDCHF for a profit. 📈 I'm all out for now, looking for AUD pullbacks! Took a bit of time, but the idea worked nicely. - Nick