Post #15375

Decision Day for the Pound GBP/USD has caught a bid, pushing back into a key resistance zone just shy of 1.3200. With the UK Budget scheduled for tomorrow, this level becomes even more important. Traders are bracing for a high-stakes budget. The UK faces a tough backdrop: record borrowing, soft retail sales, weakening sentiment, and growth forecasts expected to be cut by the OBR — all while the government tries to plug a £20–30B fiscal hole. Markets are already pricing an 80% chance of a BoE cut next month after inflation cooled to 3.6%. This leaves GBP extremely sensitive to anything Reeves announces tomorrow. • Bullish GBP scenario: A credible, balanced budget with clearer long-term direction could ease fiscal fears. • Bearish GBP scenario: Signs of deeper fiscal strain or hesitation on tax measures could reinforce rate-cut bets and send GBP/USD lower off resistance • Wildcard: A surprise from the BoE commentary or unexpected OBR revisions could amplify volatility across all GBP pairs. - Alan