Post #15376

Dollar Is Getting Tired? DXY is rejecting the 100.00 handle this morning as fresh data cools the dollar’s momentum. Price is pulling back from the top of its range — a key area that’s acted as resistance for months. Whether this becomes a deeper reversal or just a dip depends entirely on how forward-looking data plays out. Retail sales increased less than expected in September, showing a clear slowdown after a hot streak. PPI held at 2.7% YoY, but the report — delayed by the 43-day shutdown — doesn’t give markets any new insight into current inflation pressures. What is moving the dollar is the Fed narrative. Rate-cut expectations surged dramatically: traders now price an 85% chance of a December cut and a 64% chance of another cut in January. This shift came after more dovish hints from Fed Governor Miran and Waller, who both pointed to weakening labor conditions as a reason to continue easing. Together, softer data + rising cut odds = pressure on the dollar. - Alan