Post #15384

On the U.S. side, the dollar is on the defensive. Softer U.S. data reinforced December rate-cut expectations, and markets are reacting to speculation that Kevin Hassett — a more dovish pick compared to Powell — could be named the next Fed Chair. Rate-cut odds now sit near 85%, keeping USD upside capped. What It Means / Possible Outcomes: • Scenario 1 — Breakout: If USD/JPY clears resistance convincingly, momentum traders may force a run deeper into intervention territory, but the risk of a sudden BOJ response becomes extremely high. • Scenario 2 — Rejection: A rejection at these elevated levels could finally deliver the deeper correction traders have been waiting for — especially if U.S. data confirms weakening conditions and rate-cut odds climb further. • Scenario 3 — Intervention Shock: Headline intervention or even a firm verbal warning could trigger a sharp intraday flush, but unless the macro backdrop shifts, dips may continue to attract buyers. - Alan