Post #15431

DXY Balances on Its First Line of Defense DXY is resting right on the 38.2% retracement, the first of three key levels that need to hold if the broader bullish structure is going to survive. A clean break below opens up deeper downside — but for now, buyers are still defending the zone. The dollar remains under pressure as traders lean heavily into next week’s Fed meeting, where an 85% chance of a rate cut is already priced in. Soft U.S. data has only cemented the narrative. Adding to the weakness is the growing expectation that Kevin Hassett — a known dove — may be next in line for Fed Chair, reinforcing a more aggressive easing path into 2026. With sentiment stretched and everyone leaning bearish, the key catalyst now is Fed guidance next week. Dovish = continuation lower. Hawkish surprise = sharp snapback. - Alan