Post #15461

Hawkish or Dovish Cut on Deck? The dollar remains steady today as traders brace for the Fed’s rate decision — widely expected to be a cut. But this isn’t your typical dovish moment. U.S. JOLTS data came in slightly higher than expected, showing the labor market still hanging on, even if hiring remains soft. That print helped prop up the greenback short term, but the real focus now is squarely on tomorrow's Fed meeting. Markets are fully priced for a “hawkish cut” — a rate cut paired with cautious messaging in the dot plot and Powell’s presser. Kevin Hassett, a dovish contender to succeed Powell, introduces yet another layer of confusion. Front-end yields are staying sticky, and that’s keeping the dollar bid into year-end. Eyes will be glued to the updated dot plot — if it shows fewer cuts than the September forecast, it could give the dollar more strength. - Alan