Post #15555

AUD/USD Tests Resistance as Risk Rally Meets RBA Inflation Uncertainty AUD/USD pushed higher into resistance at 0.5700. The Aussie dollar extended gains as global risk appetite improved, with equities pushing higher and commodities ripping to fresh highs in thin year-end liquidity. AUD continues to trade as a risk proxy, benefiting from strength across metals like gold, silver, and copper. RBA minutes added a hawkish undertone. Policymakers discussed whether rate hikes may be needed next year to contain inflation, noting uncertainty around whether financial conditions are restrictive enough. That places added importance on Q4 inflation data due in late January. Markets still price a low probability of a February hike, but expectations firm quickly thereafter — with a move largely priced by mid-year and rising odds of further tightening into 2026. Risk sentiment and commodities are supporting AUD near term, but inflation data will ultimately determine whether the RBA is pushed back into hike mode. - Alan