Post #15564

DXY Is Now Awake The dollar is waking up post-holidays still on the back foot, trading near 97.9 — its lowest level since early October — and sitting right on the 61.8% retracement from the prior low to high. The market remains anchored to the rate-cut narrative, with traders still pricing two cuts in 2026, even after stronger GDP data failed to shift expectations. That said, the Fed remains internally divided, with most officials still signaling just one additional cut, keeping conviction mixed rather than one-sided. Adding pressure, precious metals continue to catch safe-haven bids amid rising geopolitical risk, weighing further on USD. Zooming out, DXY is down roughly 9.7% YTD, on pace for its weakest year since 2017, driven by tariff uncertainty, Fed credibility concerns, and a market that’s increasingly comfortable fading USD strength. - Alan