Post #15583

Kiwi's Rate Path is Mixed The kiwi is closing out the year relatively steady near 0.576, holding onto modest annual gains versus the dollar. The Kiwi finished the year ~3%+ YTD while the Dollar ended ~10%- YTD. Earlier optimism around a possible rate hike next year gave NZD some support, but that narrative didn’t last. The RBNZ has likely finished its cutting cycle after an aggressive 225bp of easing, but the new central bank leadership has pushed back hard against near-term hike expectations — a shift that weighed on the kiwi. Markets now see little chance of a hike before mid-2026, with July priced at ~40% and September closer to 70%, while a rate cut is fully priced by October. NZD is stable, but conviction is lacking as policy expectations have been pushed further out. As the final chart markup of 2025, it was truly a pleasure serving you all. Happy New Years, Alan 🙂