Post #15594

Dollar Benefits from Safe-Haven Flows The dollar has broken its daily bearish trendline, tagging the 38.2% retracement. A deeper pullback into the 50–61.8% zone would be a key area to watch, where longer-term bears may look to re-enter. Recent strength is being driven by a short-term safe-haven bid following the U.S. move against Venezuela’s President Maduro, though early reactions remain muted and risk-off flows could fade if the situation stabilizes. That said, markets are already looking past geopolitics and refocusing on U.S. data and what it means for the Fed’s path. The real driver now is the macro calendar. A run of resilient U.S. data has started to challenge the pace of rate cuts, even as markets still price two cuts this year. This week, U.S. labor data takes center stage — ADP, JOLTS, Jobless Claims, the Unemployment Rate, and NFP. Strong labor prints would support the dollar and challenge the Fed’s easing narrative, while softer data would renew downside pressure. - Alan